2013 : Team-by-Team Wagering Performance by Fund After Round 13

It's time to ask the question again: which are the teams to blame for Investors' losses so far, and which are the teams to thank for making them smaller than they otherwise would be?

As always, we'll analyse this question in two ways, by calculating the gains and losses recorded when we bet on a team and the gains and losses recorded when we bet against them. The final assessment of whether a team has been a help or a hindrance will be made by averaging these two perspectives.

What is different this time, however, is that I'll be presenting the outputs of these calculations solely in the form of charts.

(As with all charts on MAFL, you can access a larger version of this image by clicking on it.)

The section of the chart headed "When Wagered On" summarises the results of wagering when a particular team has been the subject of the bet - that is, the team that Investors have needed to win, win by a particular range of points, cover a spread, or not lose by more than a specific margin.

It shows that Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast have enjoyed the bulk of Investor action in the Head-to-Head market, and that only Port Adelaide and Gold Coast have generated profits. In the Line market attention has been more widely spread and net profits have also come from a larger number of teams (seven as it happens). 

The Margin Fund has also spread its affection over a wide array of teams, this affection being returned also by only seven teams, four of them in particular.

Combining the results for each wagering type, and weighting them as they are in Recommended Portfolio, it turns out that Port Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon and Fremantle have been entrusted with the largest portions of Investors' Funds, and that Port Adelaide, the Roos, Essendon and Geelong have made the largest contributions to Investor wealth. Six teams have each been responsible for lopping at least 2.5c off the price of the Recommended Portfolio when wagered upon: St Kilda, GWS, Brisbane, Richmond, Collingwood and Hawthorn.

Looking next at what happens when we've wagered against particular teams, we turn to the middle section of the chart to find a different set of heroes and villains emerging.

Head-to-Head action has been predominantly on the opponents of Sydney, Fremantle and Geelong, with wagers against Sydney producing by far the greatest returns (thanks especially to Port's upset victory this week) and those against the Cats producing the greatest losses.

On Line betting, activity has been mostly on teams facing Melbourne, the Dogs, the Lions or GWS, while profits have come mostly from wagers against Sydney and the Gold Coast, and losses have been largely a result of wagers against Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong and Richmond. Margin Fund action has centred on teams playing GWS, Melbourne, the Dogs and Essendon; profits have come mostly from wagering against Carlton, GWS and Port Adelaide; and losses from wagering against Essendon, Melbourne, the Saints and Adelaide.

Combined most of the wagering activity has been for teams facing the Dees, Dogs, Lions and Giants, most of the profit has come from wagering against the Swans, Blues and Suns, and most of the losses from wagering against the Cats, Port and Freo.

Finally, averaging the results for each team gives us the wagering performance for all games in which that team has taken part and gives us the following conclusions:

• Investors have wagered most in games involving Port Adelaide, Melbourne, GWS and St Kilda. Together, these four teams represent about one-third of all wagering activity so far this season.
• Six teams show net profits for Investors: Sydney, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Carlton, the Roos and Adelaide
• The remaining 12 teams (and wagers on draws) show net losses, foremost amongst them the Tigers, Pies, Lions, Saints and Dees, each of which is responsible for at least a 2c drop in the price of the Recommended Portfolio.