2013 : Round 7 - Results

It's a Monday night, it's late, I've a full day of meetings and appointments tomorrow, and Investors (me amongst them) have recorded another, albeit small, loss for the weekend. So this'll be short.

First to matters financial, where the Head-to-Head Fund was the only one of the three Funds to record a profit for the weekend, and it only a 0.2c hiccup on the back of a 2 from 3 performance, living testimony to the truism that you can't make much if you don't risk much.

That said, the Line and Margin Funds bear witness to the downside of ill-considered respect for that aphorism with their combined 0 from 5 record nipping 2c off the value of the Recommended Portfolio.

Still, there's been no lasting damage done and Investors find themselves down now (after my mid-week correction) by just 3c - surely only a flesh-wound at worst.

TIPSTERS AND PREDICTORS

Four favourites lost this weekend, and Combo_NN2 tipped two of those results allowing it to ease a further tip ahead of all Head-to-Head Tipsters on the MAFL Leaderboard. It now stands two clear of the field on 50 from 63 (79%). Second place is shared by all four Tipsters informed by the Head-to-Head algorithm, and all three Tipsters inspired by WinPred.

The Really Simple Margin Predictors continue to hold down the first two positions amongst the Margin Predictors, despite mean absolute prediction errors (MAPE) of over 35 points per game for the most-recent round. The round's best performance belonged to the now fourth-placed Bookie_3 with an MAPE of just under 35 points per game. Worst was the last-placed Win_3 on 40.90 points per game. All MAPEs were this week harmed by the size of the Crows' (135 points) and the Suns' (60 points) victories.

Line betting on the basis of any of the top 5 Margin Predictors would have been a profitable pursuit this year as each has correctly predicted 56% or more of line results, an outcome that could have been matched only by contrarian line betting based on the predictions of Win_3 or Win_7.

The Probability Predictors based on TAB Bookmaker head-to-head prices continue to lead their respective group, comfortably ahead of ProPred and the two Head-to-Head algorithm informed Probability Predictors. The Line Fund algorithm had its second-worst round of the season, and its third-successive negative probability score, to leave it now with an average Probability Score of -0.022 bits per game.

Despite its failure to select the correct bucket in any game this week (the best it did was to miss by a single bucket, which it did in 3 games), Combo_NN2 remains a Margin Predictor whose predictions have proven very lucrative on SuperMargin betting, second now only to those of ProPred_3 and slightly ahead of those of ProPred_7.