2012 Round 12 : Wagers & Tips - The Recovery Round?

Four Line bets, three of them on favourites, and four SuperMargin bets, three of them on those same favourites make up this week's portfolio of possibilities.

(Note that the first game this week is on Thursday night, not Friday.)

Once again the Head-to-Head Fund has seen fit to abstain from proceedings, with all four of the round's home team favourites priced at $1.45 or less, which is under the Fund's formal minimum wagering price, and the two home team underdogs priced at $6.00 and $15.00, which is apparently over the Fund's informal tolerance for improbable outcomes.

Here's the full detail:

Combined, the Line and SuperMargin wagers provide a financial interest for Investors in every contest except Saturday's Suns v Roos clash. In two of the three games where we've both Line and SuperMargin wagers it's possible for us to land both: in the West Coast v Carlton game if the Eagles win by 30 to 39 points, and in the Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions game if the Hawks win by 50 to 59 points.

In the third contest where we've simultaneous wagers, the Crows v Saints game, we'd rather that the Crows win by 17 points or more to secure the more lucrative Line bet but, barring this, would settle for a Crows win by 1 to 9 points, which would land the SuperMargin wager.

As a group, the four teams that the Line Fund has wagered on this week have been solid contributors to this Fund's performance, collectively winning six of the nine times on which they been supported. The four teams on which the Margin Fund has wagered this week have also, collectively, provided 3 of the 5 successful wagers that this Fund has placed this season. If there's such a thing as "form" when it comes to wagering - which, of course, there isn't - I'm claiming it for these teams.

Looking at this table more broadly we can see the extent to which St Kilda has been the bane of Head-to-Head Fund wagers, having been responsible for over 10c worth of depreciation in that Fund. Carlton, and (again) St Kilda, have been the prime destroyers of value in the Line Fund, combining to knock over 20c off that Fund's price. Meantime, Carlton, Collingwood and Sydney have been the major loss-makers for the Margin Fund, each being unsuccessful in producing the required victory margin in 5 separate attempts, thereby collectively stripping over one third of the Fund.

Viewed from a different perspective - from a consideration of the team being wagered against in each contest rather than the team being wagered on - we can blame Richmond for winning when we didn't want them to, destroying almost 10c worth of Head-to-Head value in doing so. We can also revile Hawthorn for winning on Line betting when we wanted the opposite result, knocking over 10c off the Line Fund price as a consequence, and Melbourne, GWS, Fremantle and the Lions from preventing their opponents delivering victories of the appropriate size, collectively ripping 50c off the Margin Fund's price.

To matters non-wagering then.

Firstly we have head-to-head tipping where we find significant debate about only the Adelaide v St Kilda clash in which the Crows enjoy 7-6 majority support, and the Dogs v Port clash where the Dogs enjoy a similarly narrow level of majority support. In every game, therefore, majority Head-to-Head Tipster support is with the favourites.

The Margin Predictors are united once again behind the six favourites, with polite debate only about the size of the victory margins in the Suns v Tigers and Hawthorn v Lions games. If any of the games are to be close-run affairs this weekend, it seems that the Crows v Saints game is the most likely candidate, with 8 of the Margin Predictors opting for a single-digit victory margin in that contest.

Finally, to probability prediction, where we find little substantive disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors. The Line Fund algorithm is particularly firm in its opinion about the Suns protecting the 60.5 points start they are receiving, and also likes the chances of the two Adelaide teams in their respective line contests. In the two other contests where Investors have Line bets, the algorithm's assessment of the relevant teams' chances are only 53% and 55%, which can surely be labelled as marginal support at best.