2012 Round 9 Results : Line Steps to the Front

This week the Line Fund showed promising signs of calibration, bagging 5 bets from 6 and climbing over 17c to more than offset the losses inflicted by the other two Funds. Overall, thanks entirely to the Line Fund, Portfolios rose by almost 6c, taking the current price to $1.11.

The Head-to-Head Fund started the week well, collecting on the Saints' victory over the Swans on Saturday afternoon, but the Crows' fade-out in the final term later that same day was enough to have it shedding almost 3c on the round. The Margin Fund missed with all four attempts of the week, but two of these were by just a single bucket so there's still good reason to be optimistic about this Fund's future, despite the fact that it is now only at break even for the season.

Six favourites won this weekend, so it's not surprising that the all-Tipster average across the Head-to-Head Tipsters was the same score. Best amongst the Tipsters was a score of 7, recorded by many, and worst was 4, also a score attained by more than one. We're left still with eleven tipsters joint-leading the competition, two fewer than we had last week, but ten more than we need to anoint a "tipster to follow".

Margin prediction was a little hampered by the upset results, especially by the Tigers' large win over the Hawks, so we saw a more historically typical average MAPE for the round of 30.58 points per Predictor per game. The round's best result was turned in by Bookie_3 with a score of 28.48 points per game. Bookie_9 continues to lead all-Predictors, now on 27.13 points per game and about one-half a point per game ahead of Combo_7 on 27.68, who's about one-quarter of a point per game ahead of Bookie_3 on 27.91 points per game.

Eight Predictors have positive ROIs had their margin predictions been used to wager in the SuperMargin market on all games, and one more (Bookie Actual) has a positive ROI if its predictions had only been followed when it opted for a Home team win or draw.

Combo_NN2, the Predictor about which Investors care most, is showing a break even result both on wagers placed when it predicts a Home team win or draw, and on wagers placed when it predicts an Away team win. These results have been achieved, overall, by selecting the correct bucket in 10 of the 81 games so far this season. It's been out by a single bucket in 20 games more.

The results of Win3 and Win7 continue to draw my attention. They've each been within 1 bucket of the correct answer in 32 and 31 of the games respectively, but managed to select the correct bucket in only 5 and 6 games respectively. So, despite being very close, very often, their ROIs are both around -50%.

Following the Margin Predictors on line betting this week would have been less successful than usual, the all-Predictor average being just 4.5 from 9. It remains the fact, however, that all Predictors except Combo_NN2 have a season-long record above chance.

All Head-to-Head Probability Predictors recorded yet another week of positive probability scores, best amongst them the TAB Bookmaker, whose result was enough to leave him in 4th place, still behind the two Head-to-Head Fund algorithm variants and ProPred.

The Line Fund algorithm had by far its best result this season, which has left it now with only a small average negative probability score for the season.