2011 MARS Ratings After Round 24

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A season-high 25.9 Ratings Points changed hands in Round 24, more than 7.5 of them as a result of the lopsided result between the competition front-runners.

None of the horse-trading of Points mattered at all though for the rankings of teams 1 through 10, the first effects being felt by Adelaide, previously 10th, dropping two places and allowing Fremantle and Melbourne, both losers, to rise by a spot.

We therefore finish the season with 9 teams ranked over 1,000, not including the Dons who will, nonetheless, play Finals football. Other significant discrepancies between ranking based on MARS Ratings and the competition ladder are for: 

  • West Coast, ranked 6th by MARS but finishing 4th on the ladder
  • Carlton, finishing 5th on the ladder but 4th on MARS
  • St Kilda, finishing 6th on the ladder but 5th on MARS
  • The Roos, finishing 9th on the ladder but 8th on MARS
  • The Dogs, finishing 10th on the ladder but 9th on MARS
  • Essendon finishing 8th on the ladder but 10th on MARS
  • Melbourne finishing 13th on the ladder but 12th on MARS
  • Adelaide finishing 14th on the ladder but 13th on MARS
  • Richmond finishing 12th on the ladder but 14th on MARS

West Coast were certainly on the way to aligning their MARS Rating with their ladder finish, having gained over 11 Ratings Points across the last 5 rounds of the season. Richmond were heading towards a similar outcome by accumulating almost 9 Ratings Points across this same time period.

Other teams with significant momentum during these rounds were St Kilda (+5.7 Ratings Points), the Lions (+4.6) and the Hawks (+3.9).

Conversely, Fremantle and the Gold Coast were the teams shedding most Ratings Points during this period, each dropping over 7 Ratings Points, while the Pies were 3rd most generous, surrendering 7.6 Ratings Points alone to the Cats this past weekend.

The only other big loser was Melbourne, which dropped almost 5 Ratings Points across Rounds 20 to 24.

All told, five of the finalists registered net Ratings Point gains over the last 5 rounds of the home-and-away season, 2 lost Ratings Points, and the eighth team, the Dons, pretty much finished at breakeven for the period.

Finally, let's review how the Colley, Massey and MARS Ratings Systems view the relative strengths of the teams now, and how they've adjusted their assessments during the course of the season.

As at the end of Round 24, the level of agreement about the rankings of the teams across the three Ratings Systems is very high.

In the end, the only significant differences in team rankings are for the Dons, Richmond and West Coast, and even then the largest difference for these teams is just two ranking spots.

From a team-by-team perspective across the season, it's interesting to note that: 

  • Adelaide's ranking, felt to be 10th by all three Systems after Round 6, fell to 13th or 14th for all Systems
  • The Lion's ranking converged to near-agreement by the end of the home-and-away season having differed by as much as 3 places after Round 6
  • Carlton were consistently ranked between 3rd and 5th by all Systems, between 3rd and 4th by Massey and MARS
  • Collingwood were rapidly rated number 1 by all three Systems, slowest by Colley
  • Essendon were ranked 7th or 8th by Colley across the season, Massey ranked them much higher earlier in the season before settling on 8th, whereas MARS started with a ranking of 8th before easing them back to 10th by the final round
  • Fremantle's ranking drifted in all three Systems, from 4th to 11th in Colley, 7th to 12th in Massey, and from 7th to 11th in MARS
  • Geelong's ranking of 2nd was established fairly early in the season by all Systems, slowest by Colley
  • Hawthorn moved from 5th to 3rd on all Systems
  • The Roos climbed on all three Systems, from 14th to 9th on Colley, 12th to 9th on Massey, and from 13th to 8th on MARS
  • Melbourne fell from 9th to 12th on Colley, rose from 14th to 13th on Massey, and fell from 11th to 12th on MARS
  • Port Adelaide maintained 15th spot on Colley, 16th position on Massey, and rose from 17th to 16th on MARS
  • Richmond fell from 11th to 13th on Colley, rose from 13th to 11th on Massey and from 15th to 14th on MARS
  • St Kilda climbed from 13th to 6th on Colley, 11th to 6th on Massey, while MARS had St Kilda pegged at 6th early on and finished having rated them 5th
  • Sydney fell from 6th to 7th on both Colley and Massey, but rose from 9th to 7th on MARS
  • West Coast rose on all three Systems, from 8th to 4th on Colley, 9th to 5th on Massey, and from 12th to 6th on MARS
  • The Dogs rose from 12th to 10th on Colley, fell from 8th to 10th on Massey, and fell from 3rd to 9th on MARS

In terms of the finalists, Colley and Massey agree that the top 8 teams on the ladder are the eight highest-ranked teams in the competition (albeit in a different order), while MARS feels that the Roos should be in the finals at the expense of the Dons.