2011 Round 22: Finely Balanced

Investors can look forward to far more wagering action this weekend, starting with the first and ending with the final game of the round. In all, six of the round's eight games will have a bearing on Portfolios.

The three line bets are all of the same approximate magnitude, as are the three head-to-head bets. Collingwood carries the largest Line Fund wager and will need to thump the Lions by 86 points or more if Investors are to collect the chocolates. In the two other games where there are line wagers Investors are receiving rather than giving start.

Head-to-head it's the Roos that have the most riding on their performance, though a win by the Swans against the Saints promises Investors a larger upside for a smaller downside.

Visually, this appears to be a nicely balanced set of wagers, though of course the probability for each game is, regretably, not spread uniformly across each row.

Our Head-to-Head Tipsters have voted with the favourites by margins of 12-1 or 11-2 in six of this week's games. In the other two they've gone 7-6 with the underdog Fremantle taking on the Roos, and 7-6 again with the underdog Dees playing Richmond.

The Margin Predictors are once again even more emphatic in their favouritism than are the Head-to-Head Tipsters. In six of the games they're unanimously tipping the favourites, in a seventh they're backing the favourites (the Tigers) 9-2, and in the eighth they're again siding with the TAB's selection but here only by 9-4 (for the Saints).

Comparing each Predictor's relative Home or Away team bias in its margin predictions we find that Bookie_9, Combo_7 and Combo_NN_2 and relatively quite biased towards home teams this week when their more usual stance is pro-Away team, and ProPred_3, Win_3 and Win_7 are all relatively Away team biased this week when their usual proclivity is to be relatively pro-Home team.

Combo_NN_1, across the whole season, has been relatively unbiased compared to the all-Predictor average margins, but this week is noticeably pro-Home team. In six of the eight games its predicted game margin is towards the Home team side of the all-Predictor average.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors all agree on which team should be favourite in every game except the Swans v Saints clash where H2H has the Swans as slight favourites. Predictor probability assessments are also quite similar for all games.

The Line Fund algorithm rates the Pies as the team with the highest probability of winning on line betting (69%), then St Kilda (66%), Carlton (64%) and Melbourne (63%). Three of those teams - all except the Saints - are home teams responsible for Investors' money this week.