2011 Round 18 Results: The Favourites Prevail

When all eight favourites win and only four of them are home teams it's probably too much to ask that Investors will make a killing in the round, especially through the efforts of the Head-to-Head Fund.

Fortunately, the Head-to-Head Fund's four from seven performance, which resulted in a 4.3% loss for that Fund was more than offset by the Line Fund's 4 from 4, which lifted that Fund by 11.3% and, consequently, lifted Investor Portfolios by 3.5c on the round. That's the fourth straight week of profitability for Investor Portfolios during which time their price has risen by over 20c to now stand at 95.8c. Breakeven, thy shall be mine.

The Head-to-Head Fund's loss for the week - which, to be fair to the Fund, was very nearly a profit, but for Fremantle's 1-point loss - broke a 3-round winning streak for that Fund and leaves it priced at just under 60c for the season, still reeling from the combined effects of Rounds 10 and 11. Meanwhile the Line Fund has extended its streak of profitable punting to 4 rounds, during which time it has landed 12 of 15 line bets and added over 35c to the its price and thus over 17c to Portfolio values.

Obviously, with all eight favourites winning, BKB did well amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, but so too did 10 other Tipsters, which also tipped the card, contributing to an all-Tipster average of 6.7 from 8 for the round, the 2nd-highest average this season. It's only the second time this year that the favourites have been successful in every game in a round, the previous occasion being Round 12.

Bookie_9 and Combo_NN_1 were two of the Tipsters recording perfect rounds this week, so they continue to lead all Tipsters on the Head-to-Head tipping ladder. They're both now on 104.5 from 140, which represents an astonishing 75% record for the season. BKB remains in 3rd, now on 103.5 from 140 (74%), one tip ahead of Combo_NN_2 on 102.5 from 140 (73%).

With all but the last game of the round producing a victory margin for the favourite of over 6 goals, Margin prediction was challenging this week, the overall Margin Prediction average of 30.35 points per game representing the season's 9th-highest. Best MAPE belonged to Bookie_3, which recorded a 25.28 points per game performance, while Combo_7, Combo_NN_1 and Combo_NN_2 all produced sub-30 MAPEs for the round. The round's worst MAPE belonged to Win_3 at 33.37 points per game.

All that leaves Bookie_3 in 1st position on the MAPE metric, now on 27.93 points per game and 0.6 points per game ahead of Combo_7 on 28.53. Bookie_9 sits in 3rd spot on 29.08 points per game. Combo_NN_1 and Combo_NN_2 are the only other Margin Predictors with sub-30 season-long performances. Combo_NN_2 remains as the best Margin Predictor for tipping margins within 6 points of the final result, a feat that it's achieved in just under 1 game in 6.

The collective line betting performance of the Margin Predictors was again strong this week, the average of 5.7 from 8 representing the 2nd-highest average for the season. The last 4 rounds have now produced the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th-highest averages of the season. Bookie_3 continues to provide profitable line-betting guidance, this week managing a 7 from 8 performance, the best of all the Margin Predictors. Interestingly, Bookie_9 was responsible for the round's worst performance, just 3 from 8, despite also drawing upon the same base margin predictions - those of the TAB Sportsbet bookmaker.

A punter who had level-staked Bookie_3's line betting suggestions from Round 1 of the season would now find himself or herself with an ROI of about 8.6% for the season. By way of comparison, the Line Fund's ROI is currently about 13.1%. Only two other Predictors would also have provided a source of profit had their predictions been the basis for line betting this year - the Predictors in last and second-last on the MAPE ladder in ProdPred_3, which would have generated a 3.1% ROI, and ProPred_7, which would have generated a 0.4% ROI. (A small profit could also have been generated by line betting against the recommendations of Bookie_9, but the ability to select the right Predictor to follow and the perspicacity to wager against its predictions, seems to me to be such an implausible scenario to posit as to be barely worth mentioning.)

All the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors fared well in a round full of victories by favourites, each recording its best round for the season. Best performed was the TAB Sportsbet Bookmaker, though its probability score was only marginally superior to that of H2H Adjusted and Unadjusted, which this week, as in most weeks, were the same.

The Line Fund recorded another mildly negative probability score, despite generating yet further profit for Investors. May that trend continue.