This Season, No Lead Is Safe

So far this season leading at the end of the first quarter, or even at half-time, hasn't been as comforting for the leading team as it was last season.

Teams that have led at quarter-time (excluding games tied at quarter-time or full-time) have gone on to claim victory only 59% of the time compared to 75% of the time during season 2010. Even teams with leads of 3 goals or more at quarter-time have won only 75% of the time this season compared with 95% for teams with similar leads at quarter-time last season.

At half-time the story's only a little different. Teams that have led at half-time (excluding games drawn at half-time or full-time) have gone on to win just 68% of contests this season compared to 80% of them last season. A lead of at least a goal at half-time has been enough for only 2-in-3 teams with such a lead this season; last season these teams won 8-in-10.

What's been happening is that winning teams have been piling on the points in the third and, especially, the final terms of games. Whereas winning teams have scored 1.3 points for every 1 point that losing teams have scored in 1st quarters, they've scored almost 1.5 points for every 1 point scored by losing teams in 3rd terms, and 1.8 points for every 1 point scored by losing teams in final terms.

Looked at another way, winning teams have made 57.5% of scoring shots in 1st terms, 59.3% of scoring shots in 3rd terms, and 60.4% of scoring shots in final terms. More tellingly, while they've converted these shots at just 51% in 1st terms compared to a conversion rate of 52.5% for losing teams, they've converted at almost 55% in 3rd terms to losing teams' 52%, and at a whopping 58% in final terms while losing teams have dropped off to convert at a rate just under 46%.

The kings of the final term point accumulation are Collingwood. They've scored over one-third of their aggregate points in 4th quarters. Next highest are Carlton and Hawthorn on 29%.

If we combine the 3rd and 4th quarters, the Pies still lead having scored 57% of their total points in this half of their contests. The Hawks and the Tigers are only narrowly behind them, both on 56%.

Also worthy of mention is the Saints scoring profile, with 31% of their points coming in 1st terms but only 18% in the second. Richmond have the opposite profile, with just 15% of their points coming in 1st terms and 29% in 2nd terms.

Port Adelaide's second-half statistics are also unusual: 36% of their points come in 3rd terms but only 17% in final terms.