2011 MARS Ratings After Round 6

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The Round 6 results did nothing to alter the ordering of the top 6 teams on MARS Ratings, nor of those positioned 11th through 13th, but they did serve to shuffle the teams from 7th to 10th and those from 14th to 17th.

Gold Coast suffered the largest Ratings Point (RP) decline, dropping another 5.6 RPs, though this wasn't quite enough to fall below the similarly rock-like Port Adelaide, which itself fell by 4.8 RPs. Other significant declines were recorded by Melbourne (down 4.9 RPs) and the Dogs (down 3.0 RPs).

Mirroring the falls for these teams were the gains enjoyed by their respective opponents: Essendon rose by 5.6 RPs, West Coast by 4.9 RPs, the Roos by 4.8 RPs, and Collingwood rose by 3.0 RPs.

As the MARS Ratings table now stands, the teams split fairly naturally into five groups: 

  • Group 1, comprising the Pies (1,045.1) and the Cats (1,031.1), which are the teams that seem most likely to finish 1st and 2nd on the ladder.
  • Group 2, comprising the Dogs, the Blues and the Hawks, all of which are rated around 1,010.
  • Group 3, comprising the Saints, Freo, the Dons, the Swans and Adelaide. This lot are all rated around 1,000 and look set to compete for the last 3 spots in the Finals.
  • Group 4, comprising Melbourne, West Coast and the Roos, all rated around 990 and odds-against to finish in the top 8 if these Ratings are accurate.
  • Group 5, comprising the Lions, the Tigers, the Suns and Port. These teams are all rated around 980 and seem more likely to be kept awake worrying about the Spoon than by the trauma of missing out on Finals tickets for the relatives.

The TAB Sportsbet bookmaker, as ever, sees things slightly differently. For the minor premiership market he has:

  • Collingwood at $1.35 and Geelong at $3.15
  • Carlton, Hawthorn, Freo at $26, and Essendon at $34
  • The Dogs at $251, and the Saints, Swans, Crows, Dees and Eagles at $501
  • No quote for the Roos, Lions, Tigers, Suns and Port.

 Probably the most significant differences there are for the Dogs and the Saints, both of which he rates much lower than the teams' current MARS Ratings suggest.

(Not that it's a race, but if anyone's curious, Port and the Suns have a long way to go before they become the lowest-ever MARS rated team. St Kilda currently holds that distinction having been rated 947.2 at the end of the 2001 home-and-away season.)