MAFL 2010 : Round 24 Results (Week 2 of the Finals)
/Maybe MAFL should only operate during the Finals.
The Cats and the Dogs delivered almost to order for MAFL Investors in their respective Semis, the only losing bet coming as a consequence of the Dogs falling just two points short of covering their 6.5 points spread.
This meant that the Recommended Portfolio rose by 2.2c to 91.49c and MIN#017's Portfolio jumped 7.65c to 48.46c. With no action this weekend MIN#002's Portfolio remained unchanged at 72c.
Here's a season-long, game-by-game view of each Portfolio's price:
(It's getting to that point in the season where some of the charts and tables I've been creating but not publishing are rapidly approaching their Best Before date; expect to see a few more of these in coming weeks ...)
Next, the Dashboard for Round 24:
There's been no change in team rankings based on MARS Ratings, though the Cats' 69-point victory over Fremantle has kicked them over 5 Ratings Points clear of the Pies, which, as you'll see in a future blog post describing the latest round of simulations, has the Cats as MARS favourites for the flag.
As well, the Dogs' victory over the Swans was just about large enough to preserve its MARS Rating, which leaves the Dogs still more highly MARS-Rated than the Saints. That's still not at all what the bookies think.
All tipsters picked both winners this weekend, with LAMP and BKB recording the best Mean Absolute Prediction Errors (MAPEs) at about 15 points per game. BKB's performance knocked 0.16 points from its season-long MAPE, which now stands at 29.66 points per game, still the best of all the Margin Tippers.
LAMP, which remains in 2nd, sliced 0.17 points from its MAPE, dragging it to the precipice of a 30 MAPE - it now stands at 30.07.
HAMP remains in 3rd on the MAPE metric, down 0.14 points per game this week to 30.25.
Only BKB saw its Median APE metric change this week, down by 0.5 point to 26.5 to give it outright second behind LAMP on 26 and ahead of both ELO and HAMP on 27.
The expected victories by the Cats and the Dogs continued the decade-long dominance of the teams from ladder positions 1 through 4 in Semi Finals. As the table below shows, these teams now have a 20 and 2 record in this week of the Finals.
