MAFL 2010 : Round 11

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Every week I learn a little more about my tolerance for risk.

I feel far more comfortable with an array of wagers that includes the Tigers at $5.50 and West Coast at $6.00 than I did with last week's festival of favourites. Wagering at odds-on prices still feels inordinately Sysyphean to me.

Anyway, the Recommended Portfolio includes 23 bets this week, which represent, in aggregate, about 15% of total funds. The ELO-Based Fund is the most active, with 6 bets totalling 30% of the Fund. New Heritage is next most active, with 5 bets totalling 15% of the Fund, three of them contrarian bets on away teams - an indulgence afforded only to this Fund and an annoyance to those with the Recommended Fund who win and lose on this game no matter the outcome (though in both cases they win more if the home team prevails).

All four remaining Funds - Prudence, Hope, Shadow and Heuristic-Based - have just 3 bets each representing aggregates ranging from about 4.5% of the Fund in Prudence's case to 17.5% of the Fund in Hope's case, a startling return to activity from a Fund that's wagered not much more than this over the course of the last 3 rounds combined, and nothing at all in Round 10.

Here's the detail:

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, it's the Eagles v Cats game that represents the largest swing between best and worst outcomes, and the largest upside - hardly surprising, I guess, when you've thrown a wad of cash at a team priced at $6. The next-largest upside, and the next-largest swing as it happens, comes from wagers on the Tigers at $5.50.

The largest downside is associated with wagers on Sydney at $1.72 facing the Dons, though a Lions win over the Roos would hurt almost as much.

Here's the detail of the week's Ready Reckoner:

Two games - Dogs v Pies on Sunday and Swans v Dons on Saturday - are generating the highest levels of disagreement amongst tipsters this week, and only one game has elicited unanimity.

Here are the details:

  • The Saints are 13-2 favourites over the Tigers, though the competition-leading Easily Impressed I is one of the two tipsters backing the Tigers. The Margin Tippers are predicting Saints victory margins ranging from 7 to 40 points.
  • Carlton are the week's only unanimous favourites. They take on the Dees. Predicted margins of victory for the Blues range from 12 to 29 points.
  • Fremantle are 14-1 favourites over Adelaide. ELO, though tipping Freo, predicts just a 6 point margin making this its Game of the Round.
  • Brisbane are 12-3 favourites over the Roos. Two of the three Roos tips come from Margin Tippers: Chi tips them to win by just 1 point, and LAMP tips them to win by 3 points, making this game both of these tipster's Game of the Round (in Chi's case, one of two such Games).
  • Geelong are 14-1 favourites over the Eagles, with the Cats tipped to win by between 17 and 42 points.
  • Sydney are 10-5 favourites over Essendon. HAMP, which tips Sydney to win by 2 points, and BKB, which tips them to win by 6.5 points, have this as their Game of the Round.
  • Hawthorn are 13-2 favourites over Port Adelaide. Predicted margins for the Hawks range from 7 to 29 points.
  • Western Bulldogs are 8-7 favourites over the Pies. Chi and BKB are the only Margin Tippers selecting the Pies, in Chi's case by just 1 point, making this his other Game of the Round.

The average number of dissenting tipsters per game is about 2.6 this week, up considerably on last week's 1.1.

HELP's has again selected all 8 away teams as line betting winners this week, but has attached probabilities in a much narrower range: 63% to 67%.

This week those with the Recommended Portfolio would like to see a round riddled with upsets. Wins by the Tigers and the Eagles would be especially welcomed (though I'll settle for just one of them winning).