This Week We're All Saints

After 341 wagers across 184 games Investors with the Recommended Portfolio have effectively offered the TAB Sportsbet bookie a double-or-quits proposition.

If the Saints win on Saturday, their profit will lift from about 7.5% of Initial Funds to about 15.1%; if the Saints lose the entire year's effort will amount to a profit of about 1.4%.

The story for other Investors is different but they too are now all guaranteed a profit for season 2009 ranging in size from 5% to 33%.

Head-to-head bets on the Saints range from Chi-squared's 14.1% to Prudence's 3.2%, and Line Redux has its customary 5% on the Saints +8.5 points.

The bookies' re-estimation of the relative chances of the Saints and the Cats on the basis of just one game each has been quite dramatic and, in my view, excessive. This time last week I calculated that we should expect a Saints price of $1.80 to $1.95 if they were to take on the Cats in the GF. We got them at $2.30.

Our Ready Reckoner is as follows:

Those are fairly dramatic swings for just a single game. Still, it is the Granny ...

On tipping this week, a little explanation is required.

Not for Chi, who's on the Saints by 3, nor for BKB, who's on the Cats, but for ELO, who's on the Saints by 31 despite the fact that Geelong have a marginally better MARS rating (1,043.3 to the Saints' 1,043.1) and there's no true home team this week.

All year I've been selecting ELO's tips using a model, fitted to the results for seasons 2000 to 2008, that converts MARS ratings into predicted margins and takes into account true and notional home team status. This model, in the finals especially, places a great deal of weight on the home team even if that team is only the notional home team. The logic behind this is that, in the absence of a true home team, the notional home team - such as the Saints this week - finished higher on the competition ladder.

So, for ELO, the Saints by 31 points it is.

On Line Betting this means that Chi and ELO are also both on the Saints.

(Incidentally Chi's Mean APE is 30.7 points per game and his Median APE is 26.5 points. Any hopes of a sub-30 point Mean APE are long-gone, but around 30.5 points per game - which is possible if the Saints do win by around 3 points - is still a respectable outcome, unlike say his wagering performance.

ELO's Mean APE is 28.6 points per game and its Median APE is 23.0 points, respectable results both. With a Saints victory of the optimum magnitude - 31 points - the Mean APE could even finish below 28.5 points per game.

BKB's Mean APE is 28.1 points per game and its Median APE is 23.5 points, remarkably still trailing ELO's.)