MatterOfStats 2017 : Team Dashboard for Round 14

/

The latest Team Dashboard is below, and this week we'll take another look at the MoS Win Production Function and what it says about teams' actual winning percentages versus what might be expected based on their scoring statistics.

The teams that have won more games than we might have expected are:

  • Fremantle: +2.2 games
  • Hawthorn: +1.3 games
  • GWS and Western Bulldogs: +1.0 games
  • Carlton and St Kilda: +0.8 games
  • Geelong: +0.7 games

Those who've won fewer than we might have expected are:

  • Port Adelaide: -2.1 games
  • Kangaroos: -1.6 games
  • Adelaide: -1.4 games
  • Collingwood: -1.3 games
  • Sydney: -1.1 games
  • Essendon: -0.9 games

Based on Expected Wins, the competition ladder would now be (with actual ladder position shown in brackets):

  1. Adelaide (1)
  2. Port Adelaide (4)
  3. GWS (1)
  4. Melbourne (5)
  5. Geelong (3)
  6. Richmond (6)
  7. Sydney (10)
  8. Essendon (11)
  9. West Coast (7)
  10. Collingwood (13)
  11. St Kilda (8)
  12. Western Bulldogs (9)
  13. Kangaroos (17)
  14. Gold Coast (14)
  15. Carlton (15)
  16. Fremantle (12)
  17. Hawthorn (16)
  18. Brisbane Lions (18)