MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 23
/This week, as well as the full Team Dashboard, which appears at the end of this blog, I've included a short-form version of it that includes only the teams' actual and Expected Wwins (based on their Scoring Shot data and the MoS Win Production Function), their ranking on Expected Wins, and their ranking on the various metrics that appear within the Dashboard.
All of the ranks are colour-coded, green if the ranking is 3 or more spots higher than a team's ladder position, red if it's 3 or more spots lower, and orange otherwise.
I'll leave closer inspection to the interested reader but just make a few broad observations:
- Hawthorn is ranked no higher than 3rd on any metric, and as low as 12th and 13th on a few
- Geelong and the Western Bulldogs are ranked surprisingly lowly on a number of metrics, in particular those related to Conversion rates
- Port Adelaide is the only team from outside the Final 8 whose Scoring Statistics pointed to a Top 8 finish. Particularly notable is the fact that they were ranked 2nd on Opponents' Scoring Shot Conversion. This metric, as it turns out, wasn't especially imoprtant this year (see below). The Roos would be the team they'd replace in the Final 8
- Gold Coast, despite finishing 15th on the ladder, finished 5th on Opponents' Scoring Shot Conversion
Across all of the teams, the final rank correlations between ladder position and ranking on these metrics were:
- Ladder with Expected Wins-Based Ladder: +0.96
- Ladder with Scoring Shot Creation: +0.90
- Ladder with Scoring Shot Concession: +0.91
- Ladder with Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.73
- Ladder with Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.34
- Ladder with Q1 Performances: +0.81
- Ladder with Q2 Performances: +0.71
- Ladder with Q3 Performances: +0.84
- Ladder with Q4 Performances: +0.89
