Again this week I'll refrain from any lengthy commentary until such time as bye-season has ended and all teams have played the same number of games.

Instead, I'll just note the surprising number of teams whose winning percentage is substantially different from what would be expected based on their Scoring Shot data and the MoS Win Production Function.

Currently, we have:

Fremantle: 1.9 wins fewer than expected
West Coast: 1.7 wins fewer than expected
Port Adelaide: 1.6 wins fewer than expected
Melbourne: 1.2 wins fewer than expected
GWS 1.2 wins fewer than expected
Adelaide: 0.9 wins fewer than expected
Geelong: 0.9 wins fewer than expected

Carlton: 1.9 wins more than expected
Hawthorn: 1.6 wins more than expected
Richmond: 1.2 wins more than expected
St Kilda: 1.1 wins more than expected

Now the MoS Win Production Function was created almost five years ago, so it might be that there has been a permanent change in the way the competition rewards scoring behaviour. That's a possibility I intend to explore further during the off-season.

But, it might also be the case that some teams truly have done better (or been "luckier") and others done worse (or been less "lucky") at converting scoring behaviour into competition points and that we'll see some realignment between scoring behaviour and competition points, especially for the teams listed above, as the remainder of the home-and-away season plays out.