Why There'll Always Be More Blowouts Than We Expect
/Last night I was thinking about the results we found in the previous blog post about upsets and mismatches and wondered if the historical pattern of expected game margins was borne out in the actual results. On analysing the data I found that there were a lot more victories of 10 Scoring Shots or more in magnitude than MoSSBODS had predicted. In most seasons, at least one-third of the games finished with a victory margin equivalent to 10 Scoring Shots or more, which was usually two or three times as many as MoSSBODS had predicted.
Read MoreTeam Scoring Model Parameter Sensitivity
/In recent blogs we've being exploring a range of topics related to team scoring, all of them based on a model I created in a series of blogs
Read MoreFooled By Lumpiness
/In a typical AFL game in 2012 the winning team registered about 30 scoring shots and the losing team about 20. On the assumption that the sequence of team scoring shots is random - so that, for example, the winning team's probability of registering the next scoring shot is always 60%, regardless of whether or not it was the team to score last - how likely is it, do you think, that we'd witness a run of 5 or more consecutive scoring shots by the winning team is such a game?
Read MoreTeam Scores - Statistical Distribution and Dependence
/In the most recent post on the Simulations blog I assumed that Home Team and Away Team scores were independently and Normally distributed (about their conditional means). I'll investigate both these assumptions in this blog.
Read MoreModelling AFL Team Scoring : Part III
/This is the third in a series of blogs (here are Part I and Part II) about modelling the scoring of AFL teams and, with the heavy statistical lifting out of the way, in this blog we can look at the practical uses of what we've discovered so far
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