2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R4

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This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn: about 90% chance of being finalists; 70% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Geelong: about 70-80% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 8-16% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. GWS, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda: about 55-65% chances of being finalists; 20-30% chances of Top 4; 3-6% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle: about 35% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 15-20% chances of being finalists; 2-4% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: about <1-2% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

It’s interesting to note that 10 teams currently have better than 50% chances of finishing Top 8, and 10 have better than 20% chances of finishing Top 4.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Sydney: 13% point increase (to 61%) in probability of playing Finals; 9% point increase (to 26%) of finishing top 4

DECREASES

  • Port Adelaide: 13% point decrease (to 15%) in probability of playing Finals; 3% point decrease (to 4%) of finishing top 4

What’s most notable about this week’s results is how similar they are to last weeks, and that’s partly because so many of the Round 3 results were close to what MoSHBODS was forecasting.

Note that I’ve now included a measure of the effective number of ladder positions that a team is vying for. This is the inverse Herfindahl-Hirschman index as discussed here. That measure is currently suggesting that Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast have the least uncertainty about their final home and away ladder positions, and Sydney and St Kilda have the most uncertainty.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Hawthorn

  • Brisbane Lions / Geelong

  • Collingwood

  • Adelaide

  • GWS

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are very similar to last week’s and have that:

  • There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s now about a 7-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s now about a 2-in-11 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages