2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 22
/This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Sydney: certain of being finalists; near certain of Top 4; 80% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong and Port Adelaide: near certain of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 7% chances of being Minor Premier
GWS and Brisbane Lions: near certain of being finalists; 60-65% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs: 90-95% chances of being finalists; 0.5-2% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Fremantle and Carlton: 50-60% chances of being finalists; tiny to 5% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Essendon and Collingwood: 2-5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast: snowball’s chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier
Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier
LADDER FINISHES
The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.
There were a few large movements in teams’ Final chances this week, the biggest being:
Hawthorn +47% points
GWS +23% points
Carlton -27% points
Fremantle -24% points
Essendon -17% points
There are still 9 teams with a 50% or better chance of playing Finals, and five teams with a 60% or higher chance of finishing Top 4.
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for the latest simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:
How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for
How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position
Overall uncertainty fell sharply again this week, with the 9 least certain teams now effectively fighting for between about 4 and 6 ladder positions, and the 9 least certain ladder positions having about 4 to 5.5 teams effectively fighting for them.
On the teams side, those with the most certainty are West Coast, Richmond, North Melbourne, Sydney, and Adelaide each of whom is effectively fighting for no more than 2 spots. On the ladder positions side, those with the most certainty are 1st, and 15th to 18th, each of which has effectively only about 1 or 2 effective suitors.
The ladder positions with the most uncertainty remain those in the middle of the table, from about 2nd to 14th, although 2nd, 6th, and 14th are relatively more certain.
We also see that the average team is still effectively competing for about 3.5 positions, and the average ladder position has about 3.4 teams competing for it.
WINS AND LADDER POSITION
Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.
Those probabilities vary by team, of course. Let’s have another look at them.
The main conclusions here are that
13 wins leave Carlton as less than 50:50 propositions
13.5 wins make Essendon about a 50:50 proposition
13 wins make Fremantle only about 2-in-3 chances
13 wins make Hawthorn about 70% chances
13 wins make Western Bulldogs about 75% chances
The key insights from this chart are that:
15 wins for Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Sydney make them about 90% chances or better for Top 4
15 wins for GWS and Geelong make them only about 3-in-4 chances for Top 4
Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis for all 18 ladder positions.
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our current estimates are that:
There’s now only about a 3-in-10 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (it’s down by about 11.5% points on last week)
There’s now only about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down by about 23% points on last week)
There’s now about a 9-in-20 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up by about 31.5% points on last week)
TOP 2s, 4s, and GRAND FINALS
Another look this week at the most-likely Top 2 and Top 4 teams, in order, at the end of the home and away season, and at the most likely Grand Final pairings.
Top 2s
A Sydney/Port Adelaide pairing, in either order, now accounts for just over one-third of all simulation replicates, with a Sydney/Geelong pairing in that order accounting for just under another 30%, and a Sydney/GWS pairing, in that order, accounting for another 11.
Brisbane Lions’ only appearance in 1st amongst the Top 10 is when Sydney comes 2nd behind it, which appears in about 1-in-40 replicates.
The Top 10 pairings account for just over 95% of all replicates and, altogether, 21 different ordered paird occurred at least once across the 10,000 simulation replicates.
Top 4s
The key thing to note in the Top 4 table is that even the most-common quartet appeared in only 1 replicate in 10, so there remains a lot of uncertainty about this outcome.
That most-common set was Sydney/Port Adelaide/Geelong/Brisbane Lions, which appeared, in that order, marginally more often than Sydney/Port Adelaide/Geelong/GWS and in about 1-in-14 replicates.
The Top 10 quartets account for only just over 50% of replicates and, altogether, 164 different ordered sets occurred at least once across the 10,000 simulation replicates.
(For the curious, the most-common Top 8, in order, was Sydney/Port Adelaide/Geelong/GWS/Brisbane Lions/Western Bulldogs/Hawthorn, but it occurred in only 0.3% of all replicates making it an almost meaningless result. Altogether, across the 10,000 replicates there were 1,816 different ordered sets, only 26 of which occurred in at least 50 replicates.)
Grand Finals
Despite the Top 2 places most often being occupied by Sydney and Port Adelaide, the most common Grand Finals see Port Adelaide take on Brisbane Lions. That accounts for about 1-in-9 simulation replicates.
A Sydney/Port Adelaide clash comes second, and accounts for another roughly 1-in-12 replicates.
The Top 10 pairings, ignoring order, account for almost 70% of replicates and, altogether, 49 different pairs occurred at least once across the 10,000 simulation replicates, 24 of them in at least 50 replicates.
FINALS CHANCES
Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities.
A quick look at the AFL Futures markets would suggest that there might be a bit of value
IN THE MISS FINALS MARKET ON
Dockers
IN THE MAKE FINALS MARKET ON
Dons
IN THE FLAG MARKET ON
Power and Dogs
Your regular reminder that I do not bet on these Futures markets.
