2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 20

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This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99% chances of Top 4; 82% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions and Fremantle: 94-98% chances of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton, Geelong, and Western Bulldogs: 90% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 0.2-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon, Melbourne, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: 5-10% chances of being finalists; slim chances of Top 4; no chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: slim to no chance of being finalists, no chance of Top 4 or Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

There were a few large movements in teams’ Final chances this week, the biggest being:

  • Hawthorn +24% points

  • Port Adelaide +22% points

  • Western Bulldogs +20% points

  • Essendon -25% points

  • Melbourne -22% points

  • Gold Coast -19% points

There are now 9 teams with a 60% or better chance of playing Finals, and six teams with a near 40% or higher chance of finishing Top 4.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the latest simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

Overall uncertainty fell a little more this week, with the 8 least certain teams now effectively fighting for between about 7 and 9 ladder positions, and the 8 least certain ladder positions having about 7 to 9 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are Sydney, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond, each of whom is effectively fighting for no more than about 3 spots. On the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions are 1st, and 15th to 18th, each of which has effectively about 3 or fewer suitors.

The ladder positions with the most uncertainty remain those in the middle of the table, from about 2nd to 14th.

We also see that the average team is still effectively competing for about 5.6 positions, and the average ladder position has about 5.6 teams competing for it.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

Those probabilities vary by team, of course. Let’s have another look at them.

Amongst outcomes that are reasonably likely, the main conclusions here are that, Western Bulldogs (and maybe Carlton) aside, will likely need 13.5 or 14 wins to be confident of playing Finals.

One key takeaway from this chart is that 15 wins are required for most teams to be better than 50% chances of finishing Top 4, and, even then, 15.5 wins is needed for a few teams like Geelong, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide to have genuine confidence of obtaining the double-chance.

Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis for all 18 ladder positions.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s now about a 9-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (it’s down by about 3.5% points on last week)

  • There’s now also almost a 9-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up by about 14.5% points on last week)

  • There’s now about a 1-in-11 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up by about 3% points on last week)

FINALS CHANCES

Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities.

A quick look at the AFL Futures markets would suggest that there might be a bit of value

IN THE MAKE FINALS MARKET ON

Hawks (and less so on the Dogs)

IN THE FLAG MARKET ON

Hawks and Dogs

Your regular reminder that I do not bet on these Futures markets for fear of vig poisoning.