2024 : Simulating the Finals After Round 24
/MoSHBODS has what I think are fairly described as interesting ideas about the 2024 Finals series, and has Port Adelaide as firm favourites for the Flag, but also as very nervous should the Hawks or the Dogs be the team they face in the Grand Final as you can see in the chart below that are based on 10,000 simulations using the latest MoSHBODS Ratings and show how likely it is that each team goes out in a certain week, and who they are most likely to go out to if they do.
(It also shows which teams they are most likely to defeat in the Grand Final when that is their outcome.)
Port Adelaide makes the Grand Final in just over 50% of replicates and takes the Flag in just under 30% of them, which makes their current market prices of $2.10 for making the Grand Final and $5.50 for winning it, quite attractive.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn are MoSHBODS’ 2nd- and 3rd-favourites for the Flag, partly because of their relatively high Ratings, but also because MoSHBODS rates home state advantage very highly in Grand Finals, and so has both of these teams faring well against any of Port Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, or Brisbane Lions in a Grand Final matchup. MoSHBODS has the Dogs making the Grand Final in about 1 replicate in 4, and winning it in just under 1 replicate in 5, and has the Hawks making the Grand Final in about 2 replicates in 11, and winning it in just under 3 replicates in 20. The Dogs are currently $6 to make the Grand Final and $10 to win it, while the Hawks are $7 to make and $13 to win.
Fourth, according to MoSHBODS, are Sydney, who make the Grand Final in just under 3 replicates in 10, and win about 1 in 8. They are, however, the market favourites to win the Flag at $3.80 (and $1.90 to make the Grand Final).
Next come GWS (just over 25% to play in the Grand Final and just under 10% to win it), then Geelong (just over 20% to play in the Grand Final and just over 10% to win it), then Brisbane Lions (just over 15% to play in the Grand Final and about 7.5% to win it), and finally Carlton (just over 2% to play in the Grand Final and less than 1% to win it). None of these estimated probabilities represent value at current market prices.
In summary, MoSHBODS rates Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn far higher than does the TAB bookmaker, and rates Sydney, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane Lions, and Carlton considerably lower.
GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS
Finally, here are the estimated probabilities for each of the 26 possible Grand Final pairings, which range in value from about 1-in-9 to less than 1-in-1,000.
(Note that an earlier version of that chart had all percentages doubled. Thanks to Dean for spotting it.)
Port Adelaide figures in all of the five most-likely pairings with, in order, Western Bulldogs (16%), Sydney (14%), GWS (12%), Hawthorn (11%), and Geelong (9%). It appears with Brisbane Lions in 1% of Grand Finals, and with Carlton in 0.2%.
The only pairings other than those just mentioned involving Port Adelaide that occur in at least 2.5% of Grand Finals are:
All about 4%: GWS v Sydney, Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs, GWS v Geelong, Geelong v Sydney
All about 3%: Brisbane Lions v GWS, Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn, Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Every possible Grand Final pairing occurred at least once amongst the 10,000 replicates, but a Geelong v Carlton pairing occurred in only12 replicates, in none of which were the Blues successful.
