2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 17
/The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:
Geelong: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 90-95% chances for Top 4, and 50-55% chances for the Minor Premiership
Melbourne and Fremantle: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 70-80% chances for Top 4, and around 15-20% chances for the Minor Premiership
Brisbane Lions and Sydney: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 45-55% chances for Top 4, and around 3-5% chances for the Minor Premiership
Collingwood and Carlton: 80-90% chance of playing Finals, 20-30% chance of a Top 4 finish, 1-3% for the Minor Premiership
Richmond: 65% chance of playing Finals, 8-10% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for the Minor Premiership
St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 20-25% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish
Port Adelaide: 15-20% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish
Hawthorn, Essendon, Adelaide, GWS, West Coast, and North Melbourne: looking to 2023 and draft picks (with North Melbourne the favourites for the Spoon)
(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).
LADDER FINISHES
The ladder projections using the Standard methodology (aka “cold” sims) appear on the left, and those using the Heretical methodology (aka “hot” sims) appear on the right.
Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now runs from 2.2 to 15.9, which has grown again a little from last week’s range of 2.4 to 15.9. We also see that 11 teams are still expected to finish with a win percentage above 50%.
The biggest declines in Expected Win tally came this week for Brisbane Lions (-0.9), while the biggest increase came for Essendon (+1.0).
In terms of Top 8 chances, there were four double-digit changes in estimate, including Sydney’s +18% points, Carlton’s +14% points, Western Bulldogs’ -20% points, and St Kilda’s -18% points.
Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find:
A larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (1.9 to 16.3 wins)
A similar ordering of the teams in terms of Expected Wins with only Melbourne and Fremantle swapped
Broadly similar estimates for the changes in teams’ Finals chances
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the top, and those from the Heretical methodology on the bottom. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).
STANDARD METHODOLOGY
heretical methodology
Another reduction in average uncertainty this week, despite non-trivial increases for Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Essendon.
Both methods suggest that teams are, on average, effectively competing for just under 6 different ladder positions, and both have most teams competing for between 4 and 8 or 9 positions, the exceptions being GWS, Geelong, West Coast, and North Melbourne.
standard methodology
heretical methodology
These tables also imply a slight reduction in uncertainty this week, and suggest that there are now 7 to 9 teams effectively competing for each position 4 through 10 on the ladder.
They also have the average ladder position with effectively just under 6 teams likely to fill it, and with most ladder positions effectively expecting anywhere between 4 and 9 teams to be competing for them. The exceptions amongst the ladder positions are 1st, and 16th through 18th.
WINS AND LADDER POSITION
Here’s an updated view of the distribution of team wins and final ladder position, based on the Standard Methodology
If we, again, sum across all the teams, we can see how many wins are most likely for each ladder position, as shown in the chart below.
It’s still the case that 13 wins (56% of replicates) is considerably more likely than 12 wins (33% of replicates) to be associated with the team that finishes 8th. For the team finishing 4th, 15 wins (59% of replicates) remains ahead of 14 wins (32% of replicates).
This, of course, varies by team, and in the chart below we look at how likely it is that a given team plays Finals if it records a particular number of wins, and how likely that outcome is. In the first chart we use the results from the Standard Methodology, and in the second chart from the Heretical Methodology.
We see that all teams are less than about 4% chances of playing Finals under either methodology with only 11 wins, 10 to 45% chances of playing Finals with exactly 12 wins, and 65-95% chance of playing Finals with exactly 13 wins.
Repeating the analysis for finishing in the Top 4.
As the dimension of time becomes less important, we now find the two methodologies coming into closer agreement, and 13 wins associated with a less than 1% chance of a Top 4 finish, 14 wins with 4 to 45% chances, and 15 wins with 50 to 95% chances under both approaches.
(Note that there is still a better than even chance that 4th spot will be decided on percentages, so there will be a number of replicates where a team finishes tied in 4th on 14 wins but misses out on percentage)
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
Next, we’ll use the Standard simulations to again investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions be determined after Round 23 based on percentage.
The simulations are suggesting there is a slightly worse than even-money chance that 8th and 9th on the final home and away ladder will be separated only on the basis of percentage, and a bit less than a 1-in-5 chance that 8th and 10th will also only be separated on that basis.
There is also a slightly better than even-money chance that 4th and 5th will be decided on percentages, and better than a 1-in-3 chance that this will be how the Minor Premiership is decided.
MOST LIKELY SET OF FINALISTS, TOP 2S, AND TOP 4S
Across the 50,000 replicates from the Standard Methodology, there remain 31,938 unique orderings of the 18 teams, and 250 unique orderings of the Top 8.
In the table at right we show the sets of 8 teams that most often finish as the Finalists, in some order.
One set of 8 stands out, as you can see, and appears in over 3 replicates in 10. It is, perhaps not surprisingly, the current Top 8.
The next set swaps in St Kilda for Richmond (9th from 8th), the next Western Bulldogs for Richmond (10th for 8th), and the next Gold Coast for Richmond (11th for 8th). These all occur in about 1-in-14 replicates.
What about the Top 4, and this time taking order into account.
There’s still quite a lot of uncertainty about this, with even the most common Top 4 - which sees Sydney move from their current 7th spot into 4th - occurring in fewer than 1-in-50 replicates and in only slightly more replicates than the current Top 4 in their current order.
There are 11 other Top 4 orderings that appeared in at least 1% of replicates, with Collingwood cameoing in one, Carlton in one, and Sydney, altogether, in five.
Geelong finishes as minor premier in all but two of the orderings.
