2021 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 5

/

The latest round of home-and-away simulations still hint at a very competitive season, at least in the context of Finals places.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog)

LADDER FINISHES

Team Expected Wins under the Standard Methodology grew by about 1 full win this week for Richmond, GWS, and Fremantle, and fell by about 1 full win for Sydney, Adelaide, and St Kilda.

The big gainers in terms of Finals chances were Richmond(+21% points to 78%), Fremantle (+19% points to 54%), Brisbane Lions (+11% points to 52%), GWS (+10% points to 27%), and Port Adelaide (+10% points to 81%). The big losers were Adelaide (-21% points to 31%), St Kilda (-18% points to 13%), Carlton (-11% points to 33%), and Sydney (-10% points to 75%).

After all those moves there are now 11 teams (down 1) with an estimated 30% or better chance of playing Finals.

Even under the Heretical Methodology, which tends to push probability estimates closer to 0 and 1, there are 10 teams (no change) with an estimated 30% or better chance of playing Finals.

Also, according to the Standard Methodology, the Dogs, Dees, and Power are all better than 1 in 11 chances for the Minor Premiership. According to the Heretical Methodology, the Dogs, Dees, Power, and Tigers are all better than 1 in 12 chances for that same honour.

STANDARD METHODOLOGY

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY

The range of Expected Wins using the Standard Methodology across the 18 teams widened to almost 10 wins this week. Using the Heretical Methodology it widened even more, coming in at about 13.7 wins.

Of the five teams that started with a 0-2 record (Brisbane Lions, Carlton, GWS, Essendon, and North Melbourne), the Standard Methodology now estimates that there’s about an 85% chance at least one of them will end up playing Finals.

Across the 50,000 simulations there are 49,541 different sets of teams playing Finals, treating different orderings of the same eight teams as a different set. No ordering appears in more than four replicates.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent Standard Methodology simulation replicates appear below.

(For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates

We see considerable reductions in final ladder position uncertainty this week for Essendon, Richmond, St Kilda, and Port Adelaide, who are now all effectively competing for about 10.5 to 11.5 ladder positions.

We also see moderate reductions in the uncertainty associated with all ladder positions, but moreso for positions 15th through 17th, and positions 4th through 6th.

Brisbane Lions are now the team with the greatest uncertainty about the position in which they’ll finish on the ladder (although five other teams have roughly the same level of uncertainty), while North Melbourne still have the least uncertainty.

It’s still that case that the mid-table positions - say 6th through 12th - are the ones that are associated with most uncertainty, and the top and tail positions - say 1st, 2nd, 17th, and 18th - with least uncertainty. There are now, effectively, only about four teams vying for the Minor Premiership, and about two battling for the Spoon.

IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, let’s update what the Standard Methodology simulations tell us about how likely it is that particular ladder positions will be determined by percentage.

There is now an estimated 52% chance that 7th and 8th will finish equal on competition points (and a 23% chance that 7th and 9th will). There are also greater than 50% estimates for 8th and 9th, 9th and 10th, 10th and 11th, and 11th and 12th. There’s even an estimated 2.7% chance that positions 8th through 12th will all finish equal on competition points.

WINS TO MAKE The 8

The estimates of team chances of playing Finals should they finish on 11, 11.5, or 12 wins has not much changed this week, with most teams enjoying about a 20% to 30% chance with 11 wins, and an 80% to 90% chance with 12 wins.

St Kilda and Adelaide (and North Melbourne, where an estimate can be sensibly calculated) have the lowest estimated chances of playing Finals with either 11 or 12 wins, while Richmond and Brisbane Lions have the highest estimated chances.

TEAM DEPENDENCIES IN FINALS CHANCES

Next, let’s review the dependencies in the estimated Finals chances of the seven teams estimated to have between a 25% and a 75% unconditional chance of playing Finals.

Using the arrow lengths as a proxy for dependence, we see that:

  • The Crows’ chances are most dependent on the Eagles’ fate

  • The Lions’ chances are most dependent on the Dockers’

  • The Blues’ are most dependent on the Giants’

  • The Dockers’ are most dependent on the Lions’ and the Eagles’

  • The Cats’ are about equally dependent on the Giants’, Dockers’, Blues’, and Lions’

  • The Giants’ are most dependent on the Blues’

  • The Eagles’ chances are most dependent on the Crows’

HOW MANY WINS TO FINISH WHERE

Now a look at what the Standard Methodology shows for the joint distribution of number of wins and final ladder position for each team.

WINS FOR A PARTICULAR LADDER POSITION

And, finally, an update on the distribution of wins associated with each ladder position.

It remains the case that 12 wins is more likely than 11 wins to be associated with the team finishing 8th, and that 14 wins are more often than 13 wins associated with 4th spot.

GAME IMPORTANCE

Finally, let’s take a look at how the Standard methodology estimates the importance of each of the remaining 164 games (see this blog for details about how these are calculated).

Here is the list of the 25 most important games in terms of their estimated influence on the composition of the finalists.

Fremantle are now involved in 10 of the 25 (up 5), West Coast in nine (up 3), Brisbane Lions in six (down 1), Geelong in five (down 3) and Carlton in five (down 1). Eight teams - Essendon, Gold Coast, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and Western Bulldogs are currently not involved in any of the estimated Top 25.