2021 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 1
/The first round results have changed most people’s estimates of many of the 18 team’s chances of playing Finals football, and they’ve changed MoSHBODS’ estimates, too.
Let’s see by how much (for details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog. I have made one small tweak to the Standard Methodology this week in that I’ve constrained the expected score that can be associated with a team for a given game to lie between 40 and 140 points. That’s consistent with the range seen in bookmaker estimates from recent 20-minute quarter years. Compared to the previous version of this methodology, the change serves mostly to somewhat reduce the variability in results, especially for more-distant rounds.
LADDER FINISHES
Here, firstly, are the projections for teams’ ladder finishes. The results from the Standard method are on the left, and those from the Heretical method on the right.
Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now spans the range from 8.3 to 12.9, which has shrunk from our earlier estimate of 8.1 to 13.9, largely due to a significant reduction in the tally for Geelong, paired with a small increase in that for North Melbourne.
Brisbane Lions also saw a significant decline in its Expected Win tally, while Adelaide and Sydney enjoyed significant increases.
In terms of Top 8 chances, Brisbane Lions’ fell by over 30% points, and Geelong’s by almost 25% points, whilst Sydney’s increased by over 25% points, and Adelaide’s by just under 25%.
Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find, as usual:
A larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach
Similar Top 8, Top 4, and Minor Premiership probability estimates from both methodologies for all teams, but with those from the Heretical approach slightly sharper (ie nearer 100% and 0%)
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the left, and those from the Heretical methodology on the right. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).
Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates
HERETICAL METHODOLOGY - 2,500 REPLICATES
Here too the results are quite similar, although the Heretical methodology generally has teams effectively competing for fewer positions, and has each ladder position being effectively competed for by fewer teams.
Both methods suggest that most teams are effectively competing for between about 13 and 17 different ladder positions, and that most ladder positions have effectively between 11 and 17 teams competing for them. The exceptions amongst the teams are Port Adelaide, Richmond, and North Melbourne, and amongst the ladder positions 1st and 18th.
It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty.
GAME IMPORTANCE
Next, let’s take a look at how the Standard methodology estimate the importance of each of the remaining 191 games (see this blog for details about how these are calculated).
Here is the list of the 25 most-important games in terms of their estimated influence on the composition of the finalists, according to the Standard methodology’s simulation replicates.
It remains the case that games from later in the season are slightly more likely to be considered ‘important’, partly because more uncertainty is associated with them. Just over 40% of the Top 25 are games from Round 19 onwards, despite these representing less than 25% of the remaining fixtures.
