2019 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 25 (Week 2 of the Finals)
/The latest simulations of the Final series using the methodology described here are summarised below, firstly in a chart that looks at teams' chances for various Finals finishes. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals.
In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $3 for Richmond, $3.60 for Collingwood, $3.85 for Geelong, and $8 for GWS.
MATCHUPS DURING THE FINALS
In this chart we look at the profile of the matchups that see each team exit the competition or win the Grand Final.
Whichever of Geelong or Richmond make the Grand Final will start as favourites, whether they face Collingwood or GWS in that game.
GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS
In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.
Only four Grand Final pairings are now possible. In order, the chances of each of them occurring are now estimated to be:
Richmond v Collingwood: 33.8%
Geelong v Collingwood: 28.2%
Richmond v GWS: 20.7%
Geelong v GWS: 17.2%
