2018 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 25 (Week 2 of the Finals)
/After a four from four performance in tipping winners in Week 1 and a two from two performance in tipping winners in Week 2 of the Finals, MoSHBODS returns with its thoughts about the remaining three contests. These come by way of the latest simulation outputs (which use the methodology described here but, again, with no perturbation of the current offensive and defensive ratings) a summary of which appears below.
The chart below is colour-coded this chart based on the opponent that a team lost to in an actual previous Final or in a simulated future Final, or, in the case of the "Win GF" bars, based on the opponent they defeated in that Grand Final.
We see that Richmond remain Flag favourites, with an estimated probability now of around 40%, down by about 4% points on last week’s estimate. About half of those Grand Final wins come against West Coast and half against Melbourne.
Melbourne remain second favourites according to the simulations, with estimated chances of around 28%, and Collingwood and West Coast have roughly equal chances of around 15 to 17%.
WEEK OF ELIMINATION IN FINALS
In this next chart we look at teams' chances for various Finals finishes (ie we focus solely on the heights of the bars in the previous chart). The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals (or achieved the specified result).
(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).
Richmond, as noted, are assessed as just under 40% chances for the Flag, and about 64% chances of playing in the Grand Final. Melbourne are roughly 55% chances for a Grand Final berth, West Coast 45%, and Collingwood 35%.
GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS
In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.
(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).
Only four pairings are now possible, with each having a probability somewhere in the 16 to 34% range.
The Grand Final pairing of Richmond v Melbourne is most likely (35%), and would see Richmond start as about $1.85 favourites. Next-most likely is a pairing of Richmond v West Coast (29%), in which Richmond would start roughly $1.40 favourites.
A Melbourne v Collingwood pairing is third with about a 20% probability, and would see Melbourne start as about $1.65 favourites. Lastly, a West Coast v Collingwood pairing has about a 16% probability, and would see Collingwood start as about $1.70 favourites.
