2018 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 20

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Time to update our views on how, according to MoSHBODS, this year's finals might play out.

Firstly, let's look at the relationship between teams' ladder finishes and ultimate finals performance, applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations for this week.

The profiles of Richmond, West Coast, Geelong, Sydney and North Melbourne changed little this week, while those for GWS, Melbourne, and Hawthorn improved, and those for Collingwood and Port Adelaide worsened.

Melbourne has now joined Richmond as the only teams with estimated better than 50% overall (unconditional) chances in the Grand Final.

Just 12 teams made the Finals in at least one of the simulation replicates this week, Essendon now least often of all, making it just over 4% of the time. Adelaide make it only 7% of the time, and North Melbourne only 32% of the time.

WEEK OF ELIMINATION IN FINALS

In this next chart we look at teams' chances for various Finals finishes, ignoring their home and away ladder positions (ie we focus solely on the heights of the bars in the previous chart). The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals (or achieved the specified result).

(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).

Richmond are now assessed as about 34% chances for the Flag (down 3% points on last week) and about 54% chances of playing in the Grand Final (also down about 3% points). West Coast are now about 15% chances for the Flag (up 2% points), Melbourne and GWS about 13% (both up 3% points), and Collingwood about 9% chances.

If we define the season in terms of the five events listed above plus "Miss the Finals", the most-likely finishes for each team are estimated to be:

  • Win the Grand Final: Richmond
  • Lose in a Preliminary Final: West Coast, GWS and Melbourne
  • Lose in a Semi Final: Collingwood
  • Lose in an Elimination Final:  Hawthorn, Geelong, and Port Adelaide,
  • Miss the Finals: all other teams

GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS 

In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.

(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).

We see that the Grand Final pairing of Richmond v West Coast remains most common, and still appears in about 12% of replicates. Next now is Richmond v GWS, which appeared in roughly 10% of replicates, and then Richmond v Melbourne (9%), and Richmond v Collingwood (7%).

The most-likely Grand Final not involving Richmond is a West Coast v GWS one, which occurred in about 6% of replicates.