2018 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 17

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Time to update our views on how, according to MoSHBODS, this year's finals might play out.

Firstly, let's look at the relationship between teams' ladder finishes and ultimate finals performance, applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations for this week.

There's a little less red for Richmond this week (though still quite a bit of it) and a lot more for West Coast, who are now estimated as having about a 19% chance of taking out the Minor Premiership. The Tigers still, however, are the only team more likely to win than to lose the Grand Final, should they make it.

The Finals profiles of Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne are remarkably similar, while GWS's profile, despite their being the 2nd-highest MoSHBODS rated team, is quite poor. They're only assessed as an 18% chance for a Top 4 finish, so they're likely to face an Elimination Final. 

Thirteen teams made the Finals in at least one of the simulation replicates, Fremantle least often of all in scraping into the bottom of the 8 in just 197 of the 50,000 replicates. They make the subsequent Grand Final in six replicates, winning one of them against West Coast.

WEEK OF ELIMINATION IN FINALS

In this next chart we look at teams' chances for various Finals finishes, ignoring their home and away ladder positions (ie we focus solely on the heights of the bars in the previous chart). The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals (or achieved the specified result).

(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).

Richmond are still assessed as about 36% chances for the Flag and about 55% chances of playing in the Grand Final. West Coast are now about 14% chances for the Flag, and Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne all about 7 to 10% chances.

If we define the season in terms of the five events listed above plus "Miss the Finals", the most-likely finishes for each team are estimated to be:

  • Win the Grand Final: Richmond
  • Lose in a Preliminary Final: West Coast
  • Lose in a Semi Final: Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Sydney
  • Lose in an Elimination Final:  Melbourne, GWS and Geelong
  • Miss the Finals: all other teams

GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS 

In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.

(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).

We see that the Grand Final pairing of Richmond v West Coast is most common, appearing in about 1 replicate in 8. Thereafter, four other pairings, all involving Richmond, are roughly equally-likely. These have Melbourne, Collingwood, Port Adelaide or Sydney as Richmond's opponent, and occur in 7 to 8% of replicates.

Richmond is currently estimated to win about 65% of Grand Finals against West Coast, Collingwood and Port Adelaide, 70% against Sydney, and 75% against Melbourne.