Simulating the Finals for 2015 - Before Week 2

After Week 1 of the Finals, six teams are still capable of winning the Flag and nine Grand Final pairings are still possible.

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To estimate a probability for each of those outcomes we first need to update the team-versus-team probabilities, which I've done and summarised in the table at right.

(Those of you following these simulations closely might notice that Fremantle's and West Coast's probabilities have not improved this week, despite their victories. That's because I erroneously calculated last week's probabilities using teams' ChiPS instead of MARS Ratings. These two sets of Ratings being so highly correlated this didn't make a huge difference in the simulated outcomes, but it did somewhat overstate the Dockers' and Eagles' chances, and understate the Hawks'. We'd still have found value for the same teams in the TAB markets for the Flag, Making the GF, and Losing in the Prelim, though we'd have only found in the GF Quinella market for an Eagles v Hawks GF, and not Freo v Eagles, or Hawks v Tigers GFs.)

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Using this new probability input matrix which uses, as it should, MARS Ratings, the simulations provide fresh Team Progression probabilities as shown at left. West Coast have now become the simulations' clear favourites for the Flag, a view that is shared by the TAB Bookmaker who now has the Eagles at $2.75. According to the simulations that price represents value, and is the only one that does so in the Flag market.

In the market for Making the GF, West Coast at $1.35, Sydney at $5, and Hawthorn at $2.10 all represent wagers with positive expectations, but only the Hawks provide the minimum 5% edge that I've been using as a threshold for worthiness. Fremantle at $1.90 and Sydney at $2.10 are the only teams offering value in the Losing in the Prelim market.

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A West Coast v Hawthorn rematch is still estimated by the simulations as the most-likely GF pairing, though the prospects of a Fremantle v West Coast matchup have almost tripled to have it only slightly less likely. Both of these pairings are currently priced at $2.50 on the TAB and so do not represent value.

Of the remaining seven possible pairings, Hawthorn v Sydney, and Fremantle v Sydney matchups are assessed as being most likely by both the simulations and the TAB, though neither represent value. The five other possibilities are relatively remote and not priced attractively.