Simulating the Finals Before Week 3

Again this week I'm providing a downloadable Excel spreadsheet so that you can make your own projections of the remainder of the season. The cells to change are the ones coloured yellow, which you should alter to reflect your opinion about the relevant probability for the listed game and winner.

The spreadsheet as downloaded includes the probabilities from the most recent update of the model I've been using to project the Finals this year. These probabilities, as you can see, suggest that Sydney are about 51% chances for the Flag, Hawthorn 37% chances, Port Adelaide 7.5% chances, and the Roos 4% rank outsiders.

Based on those probabilities and current TAB prices the only Flag market wager with a positive expectation is one on Sydney at $2.25.