2012 - Final Simulations : Week 2

We lost Geelong and the Roos in Week 1 of the Finals and MARS re-rated the six remaining teams, which leaves us (using the same model that we used for Week 1 of the Finals) with the following team-versus-team probability matrix.

Broadly, Hawthorn is expected to beat everyone else fairly handily, except Sydney, which they're expected to beat less convincingly but still beat nonetheless.

Using this probability matrix for 1 million simulations yields the following team-by-team Finals outcome probabilities:

Hawthorn are now estimated to win two-thirds of the time and to make the Grand Final almost 9 times in 10.

Sydney are rated about 4/1 chances for the Flag but are about even money to play in the GF.

The remaining teams are mostly there to mop up the residual probabilities, with none rated better than about 30/1 chances for the Flag and about 5/1 or longer chances to even make the Grand Final. Adelaide, despite finishing 2nd on the ladder in the home-and-away season, are now rated only about 32/1 Flag chances and 15/1 chances of even making the Grand Final.

Simulated Grand Final quinella probabilities appear in this next table. A Hawks v Swans matchup is rated by far the most likely pairing, with a probability approaching 60%.

The next most-likely pairings are Hawks v Pies and Hawks v Eagles, which carry probabilities in the 10-15% range, then Swans v Freo and Swans v Crows matchups, which carry probabilities of around 5%.

Only four other pairings are possible, none of which include the Hawks or the Swans, and none of which are assessed by the simulations as being greater than about 1% prospects.

Amongst these quinellas only the Hawthorn v Sydney pairing at $1.90 offers any value on the TAB AFL Futures market. This wager is assessed as having a 14% edge.

Other TAB AFL Futures market wagers with a positive expectation this week are the Hawks to win the Flag at $1.65 (10% edge), the Hawks to play in the GF at $1.25 (7% edge), and the Swans to play in the GF at $1.55 (8% edge).

Adding these bets to those we've identified in AFL Futures markets in previous weeks yields the following picture:

As you can see, I've closed out those wagers whose fate has already been determined, the net return from which, it turns out, is marginally positive. The ROI from level-staking the identified opportunities is just over 1%.

Having locked in, last week, what look like very promising wagers on the Hawks and Swans at attractive prices on various AFL Futures markets, the current expectation must be for that ROI to grow.

At this point, however, all our eggs are very firmly in two baskets each, appropriately enough, avian based. We'll not know anything more about the fate of these wagers for at least another fortnight.