2011 - Simulations After Round 21

Perhaps the most startling conclusion from the latest round of simulations is that the Swans, despite losing last week, saw their chances of finishing in the top 8 enhanced. This was largely due to losses for Freo and the Dees that all but ended their hopes of playing in September (and certainly in October, if that ever was a real possibility).

According to the simulations, Sydney now have a 80% chance of playing the Finals, Fremantle a 9% chance, and Melbourne only a 1% chance. The TAB Sportsbet bookmaker thinks that the Dees have a slightly better chance than this - or has built a massive overround into the Dees' price - as he has them at $15 for a Finals berth. They're certainly not value at that price and nor are any other of the teams in the top 8 market on the TAB.

(Once again the latest simulation results appear in the block on the left and last week's results appear in the block on the right. Please click the image for a larger version.)

Amongst the teams vying for a top 4 position, the weekend's results produced little change. Carlton's chances have been assessed as slipping a little, from 32% to 27%, and the Eagles' have been assessed as rising by about the same amount, from 71% to 77%. The Blues however remain as a value bet for a top 4 spot at $4 on TAB Sportsbet.

Collingwood have all but wrapped up the minor premiership and the simulations not rate them 96% chances for this honour, up 4% from last week. The Cats' chances fell from 8% to 4%. Given these probabilities, there's no value in the TAB Sportsbet market for the minor premiership. 

In the race for the Spoon, the Lions victory this week virtually eliminated their chances while at the same time enhancing those of Gold Coast, the team they beat. The simulations now have the Suns as 37% chances for the Spoon making them exceptional value at $3.30 on the TAB. The remaining contenders and TAB favourites for the Spoon, Port Adelaide, are rated 63% chances for the Spoon, down 8% on last week's rating and no value at all at $1.30.