AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 5

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So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 90% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide

  • Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong

  • Tier 3 (40-60% chances to play Finals): Richmond, Carlton,15- and Essendon

  • Tier 4 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney

  • Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): Fremantle and Hawthorn

  • Tier 6 (Less than 0.2% chances to play Finals): Port Adelaide, GWS, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast

The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:

  • Carlton: +17% points (to 46%)

  • Collingwood: +16% points (to 32%)

  • St Kilda: +11% points (to 21%)

  • Richmond: -22% points (to 39%)

  • Sydney: -14% points (to 17%)

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AFLW 2023 - Round 5 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 11:15AM SUNday

Investors have taken the unders in the first two Sunday games whilst awaiting a TAB market for the third.

UPDATE 12:30PM FRIDAY

As I type this, which is about 40 minutes out from the first game of the day, Sportsbet have no overs/unders markets for any of the four Friday games, and the TAB have markets for all of them.

So, because I have client work to be getting on with (report writing - please contain your excitement) and no faith that Sportsbet will eventually post anything, Investors have waded into these markets armed only with TAB prices. Three of which, we like. See below.

UPDATE 5:30PM THURSday

Almost missed this one (Thursday 6:15 start?). Anyway, we’ve taken the overs.

AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 4

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 80% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide

  • Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong

  • Tier 3 (60-70% chances to play Finals): Richmond and Essendon

  • Tier 4 (30% chances to play Finals): Carlton and Sydney

  • Tier 5 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood and St Kilda

  • Tier 5 (0.5-2.5% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs

  • Tier 6 (Less than 0.5% chances to play Finals): GWS and West Coast

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AFLW 2023 - Round 4 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 12 NOON SUNday

Now that we’re in on the scheme we know to start looking for over/under markets about an hour or two before game time, and today WoSHBODS finds value in four of the five contests.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

To say that the TAB’s and Sportsbet’s approach to Totals markets for the AFLW seems haphazard would be to state the obvious. Markets for two of the three 1:05 games today went up sometime in the last hour or so. Investors are on them both, as shown below.

(Note also that this table corrects an error in the GWS v Adelaide game where Investors have Adelaide -35.5 not -36.5 as previously advised.

UPDATE 4PM FRIday

So, it appears that the TAB and Sportsbet might now be offering overs/unders markets, albeit only quite close to the game if today is any indication.

Anyway, we’ve tahen u109.5 on this afternoon’s game for 5% of the Fund. All overs/unders wagers this year will be of the same size..

AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 3

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Gold Coast, and Geelong

  • Tier 2 (80% chances to play Finals): Brisbane

  • Tier 3 (50% chances to play Finals): Richmond and Essendon

  • Tier 4 (35-40% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, Carlton, and Sydney

  • Tier 5 (2.5-8% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and St Kilda

  • Tier 6 (1% or less chances to play Finals): Western Bulldogs, GWS, and West Coast

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AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 1

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In this blog there are the first ever WoSHBODS simulations for the remainder of the season and for the Finals.

They use the same hot sims methodology that I’ve employed over on the men’s site and that I’ve described in this blog post, with suitably reparameterised negative binomial and beta binomial models for simulating individual game results.

They are also subject to very high levels of uncertainty because they’re based on relatively few historical games, and because the women’s game is developing rapidly and at different paces across teams.

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AFLW Round 1 Results - A Promising Start

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Back in the dimest of darkest of ages. when I was younger yet less wise, I wagered on men’s AFL for the first time, and, in 2023, I did the same thing on AFLW and emerged with a small profit (despite eschewing my “never bet head-to-head on away teams” ethos.

I’ll definitely take that.

I also emerged with a 16.4 Margin MAE, and a 17.8 Totals MAE, which I will also take.

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