AFLW 2023 - Round 8

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WoSHBODS’ is tipping one (or maybe two) upsets this week: Geelong to narrowly beat Collingwood, and Adelaide to beat Brisbane, which is only an upset according to Sportsbet.

It expects:

  • Gold Coast (63) to be the highest scoring team

  • West Coas (23) to be the lowest scoring team

  • Western Bulldogs v Sydney (100) to be the highest scoring game

  • Hawthorn v Richmond (67) to be the lowest scoring game

It also expects 3.8 home teams to win, and 6.4 favourites.

WAGERING

WoSHBODS wagering comprises five head-to-head and two line bets this week. Altogether, the five head-to-head bets total just over 21% of the orignal Head-to-Head Fund (thanks largely to a 10% wager on Gold Coast), and the two line bets total 4.4% of the original Line Fund, which means that, overall, just over 9% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk.

You can see the various impacts on the Combined Portfolio across all possible game outcomes in the Ready Reckoner below.

This week’s wagering breaks down as:

Head-to-Head (as % of Head-to-Head Fund)

  • Home Favourites: 3.6%

  • Home Dogs: 1.5%

  • Away Favourites: 14%

  • Away Dogs: 2%

Line (as % of Line Fund)

  • Home Favourites: 0%

  • Home Dogs: 0%

  • Away Favourites: 2%

  • Away Dogs: 2.4%