AFLW 2023 - Round 6

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WoSHBODS’ is tipping two upsets this week: Gold Coast to beat Richmond, and Sydney to beat Port Adelaide. Neither would be huge upsets, but dogs beating favourites they would nonetheless be.

It expects:

  • Sydney (56) to be the highest scoring team

  • Fremantle (7) to be the lowest scoring team

  • Port Adelaide v Sydney (103) to be the highest scoring game

  • Fremantle v North Melbourne (54) to be the lowest scoring game

It also expects 4.0 home teams to win, and 6.6 favourites.

WoSHBODS is, of course, wagering head-to-head and line on Gold Coast and Sydney, but is also betting head-to-head on four more dogs (each of which it, of course, expects to lose) as well as on three favourites.

It is also wagering on three more dogs receiving start, and two favourites giving start.

Altogether, the nine head-to-head bets total a startling 30.3% of the orignal Head-to-Head Fund, more than half of which is on North Melbourne. The six line bets totalling just under 9% of the original Line Fund, which means that, overall, just under 15% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk.

You can see the various impacts on the Combined Portfolio across all possible game outcomes in the Ready Reckoner below. It really is going to mostly be about those last two games of the round.

This week’s wagering breaks down as:

Head-to-Head (as % of Head-to-Head Fund)

  • Home Favourites: 2.8%

  • Home Dogs: 0.9%

  • Away Favourites: 21.2%

  • Away Dogs: 5.5%

Line (as % of Line Fund)

  • Home Favourites: 0.04%

  • Home Dogs: 0.3%

  • Away Favourites: 2.3%

  • Away Dogs: 6.2%