AFLW 2024 - Round 7 Results - Unregressed

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WoSHBODS tipped nine from 11 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 17.8 points per game and a Totals MAE of 20.9 points per game in what can only be described as watershed revisited.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 49 from 72 (68%) for accuracy, 21.3 for Margin MAE, and 19.1 for Totals MAE.

(Please note that there have been some small adjustments to the returns for Rounds 4 and 6, the need for which were uncovered as I was doing a formula reconciliation in Excel.)

TEAM STATISTICS

Firstly, in the table at right, we look at the MAEs by team for WoSHBODS, and find that Adelaide’s, West Coast’s, and Port Adelaide’s margins remain the easiest to forecast, and Melbourne’s the hardest, now joined by Hawthorn’s and Carlton’s.

Richmond is now the only non-Victorian team with a MAE under the all-team average of 21.3 points per game (although North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs are close).

There remains no clear relationship between teams’ ladder positions and the precision with which WoSHBODS is forecasting their game margins.



Next, the log probability scores associated with each team, based on the probability estimates that WoSHBODS has attached to them in each game.

Here we find that WoSHBODS has still done best with Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane, and worst with Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton, and Fremantle.

There are now only four teams that have generated negative log probability score for WoSHBODS.

WAGERS

The Combined Portfolio rose by another 10c this week, thanks largely to a stellar Line Fund performance during which it landed 7 from 9 wagers. That Fund is now up by just over 47c on the season from a 35% ROI and 1.4 turn. The Combined Portfolio is, as a consequence, now up by 32c on the season.

This too much pass …

TEAM DASHBOARD

The metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder are:

  • Points Conceded per Game: +0.92

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.9

  • Goals Conceded per Game: +0.89

  • Scoring Shots Conceded per Game: +0.89

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.89

  • Q2 Performances: +0.88

  • Scoring Shots Generated per Game: +0.76

  • Points Scored per Game: +0.76

  • Goals Scored per Game: +0.72

The metrics least correlated are:

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.45

Geelong are now, perhaps, the team most surprisingly not in the Top 8, given their scoring statistics.

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It reveals that:

  • there is only one undefeated (North Melbourne) and one winless (Gold Coast) team

  • Fremantle are yet to win or draw a Q1 and Collingwood a Q3

  • Fremantle have, however, outscored their opponents by 2.4:1 in Q4s

  • Brisbane have outscored their opponents by over 3:1 in Q2s

  • Essendon and Richmond have outscored their opponents by over 3:1 in Q1s

  • North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by over 4:1 in Q2s and Q3s

  • Collingwood have been outscored by their opponents by more than 10:1 in Q3s

  • North Melbourne have converted at 57% and allowed their opponents to convert at only 44%, and have generated 15.5 Scoring Shots per game while allowing their opponents to generate only 6.

  • Fremantle have scored only 11% of their points in Q1s, GWS 11% in Q2s, and Collingwood 7% in Q3s

  • Essendon have conceded only 9% of the total they’ve conceded and Geelong only 11% in Q1s. St Kilda have conceded only 13% in Q1s, and Richmond only 14%.

  • Melbourne have scored in Q1 43% of all the points they’ve scored, Collingwood 36% in Q2s, and GWS 38% in Q3s.

  • West Coast have converted at 71% in Q1s and 63% in Q2s, but only 47% in Q3s and 30% in Q4s.

  • In general conversion rates by teams and by their opponents are remarkably variable across quarters for the same team.