AFLW 2024 - Round 4 Results - Pleasing

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WoSHBODS tipped 8 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 18.8 points per game and a Totals MAE of 23.3 points per game.

That took the season-long figures to 24 from 38 (63%) for accuracy, 24.6 for Margin MAE, and 19.5 for Totals MAE.

WAGERS

Both the Line and Head-to-Head Funds were profitable this week, the Line Fund especially so at it landed 9 collects from 10 wagers. As a result, the Combined Portfolio rose by just over 17c to be up now by 18.3c, that on a +24% ROI and a 0.76 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings (which I order, now that we have teams having played different numbers of games, based firstly on competition points per game played, and then on percentage) are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.89

  • Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.86

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.84

  • Points Conceded: +0.82

  • Points Scored: +0.81

  • Goals Scored: +0.8

  • Scoring Shots Generated: +0.8

  • Goals Conceded: +0.76

  • Q2 Performances: +0.75

The metrics least correlated are:

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.26

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.38

At this early stage, and based on those numbers, West Coast are maybe a little lucky to be in the Top 8.

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It reveals that:

  • there is only one undefeated and two winless teams

  • no team has recorded more than 2.2 goals per quarter

  • no team has conceded more than 2.3 goals per quarter

  • North Melbourne have converted at about 60%, while Adelaide have allowed opponents to convert at only 35%

  • Carlton have converted at only 35%, and Melbourne has allowed opponents to convert at 63%.

  • Fremantle have scored only 6% of their points in Q1, Melbourne 8% in Q2, Collingwood 3% in Q3, and Port Adelaide 8% in Q4

  • Essendon have conceded only 8% of the total they’ve conceded and St Kilda only 7% in Q1

These remain very early trends, and subject to very large sampling variance.