AFLW 2022 Spring Edition - Round 6 - Results
/Much better this week from WoSHBODS, with a Margin MAE of 16.7 points per game, a Totals MAE of 17.6 points per game, a hugely positive LPS, and a 7 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.
We can break down that overall Margin MAE of 20.8 points per game into team-by-team contributions, which we do in the table at right and which shows that WoSHBODS has been particularly precise in game margins for matches involving the Pies, Dogs, Dees, Blues, and Roos, and particularly imprecise in game margins for matches involving the Lions, Swans, Crows, Giants, and Saints.
Looking solely at the four expansion teams - whose results we might expect would be hardest to forecast - we have Hawthorn and Essendon just under the all-team average, Port Adelaide slightly higher than the average, and Sydney still much higher than the average.
Altogether, 10 teams have MAEs below the all-team average, one has a MAE roughly equal to the all-team average, and eight have MAEs above the all-team average.
The Ranking on Team Metrics table appears below and still shows a fair bit of green for teams currently in the eight, which suggests that the rankings on most metrics are fairly highly correlated with ladder position, the exceptions still being:
Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
Q1 Performances
Lastly, here is the full Team Dashboard (now with more detail about quarter-by-quarter scoring), which shows that:
Essendon are 2-0-4 despite having a 110 percentage
Sydney have scored over half their points in Q1s
North Melbourne, Fremantle, and Gold Coast have conceded about 40% of points in Q4s
Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood have conceded about 40% of points in Q1s
Brisbane Lions have conceded 85% of their point in Q1s and Q3s
Sydney have still won only 2 quarters all season
Brisbane Lions have won 18 and drawn 2 of 24 quarters
