AFLW 2022 Spring Edition - Round 5 - Results
/Some big numbers this week for WoSHBODS on Margin MAE (25.2 points per game) and Totals MAE (23.8 points per game), a highly negative LPS thanks mainly to the Tigers upset win over the Lions, but 7 from 9 on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.
We can break down that overall Margin MAE of 21.6 points per game into team-by-team contributions, which we do in the table at right and which shows that WoSHBODS has been particularly precise in game margins for matches involving the Dogs, Pies, Dees, Blues, and Roos, and particularly imprecise in game margins for matches involving the Suns, Crows, Swans, Lions, Giants, and Saints.
Looking solely at the four expansion teams - whose results we might expect would be hardest to forecast - we have Hawthorn and Essendon at about the all-team average, Port Adelaide slightly higher than the average, and Sydney much higher than the average.
Altogether, nine teams have MAEs below the all-team average, and nine have MAEs above the all-team average.
The Ranking on Team Metrics table appears below and shows a fair bit of green for teams currently in the eight, which suggests that the rankings on most metrics are fairly highly correlated with ladder position, the exceptions being:
Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
Q1 Performances
Lastly, here is the full Team Dashboard (now with more detail about quarter-by-quarter scoring), which shows that:
Port Adelaide are 1-1-3 despite having a 115 percentage
Essendon are 2-0-3 despite having a 144 percentage
Sydney have scored over half their points in Q1s
North Melbourne, Melbourne, and Gold Coast have conceded about 40% of points in Q4s
Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and Richmond have conceded about 40% of points in Q1s
Sydney have won only 2 quarters all season
Brisbane Lions and Collingwood have won 14 and drawn 2 of 20 quarters
