2024 - Team Ratings After Round 15
/MoSSBODS reranked eight teams again this week, and MoSHBODS only six, leaving them both now with the same Top 7 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood, Fremantle, and GWS.
Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (GWS up 2 into 7th, and Melbourne down 2 into 8th). Two also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide down 3 to 13th, and Hawthorn up 3 to 10th).
Ratings compression persists on both Systems, but is beginning to diminish, with MoSSBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by 5.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 20 points), and MoSHBODS’ 2nd and 12th separated by just under 20 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9936 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.7 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with Top 3s of Swans, Lions, and Dogs, while on defence MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dockers, Dees, and Swans, and MoSHBODS still has Swans, Dockers, and Dees.
If you look a little closer at the teams’ offensive rankings you’ll see that there is a very strong correlation at the moment between these rankings and their overall rankings both for MoSSBODS and for MoSHBODS.
MoSSBODS still has eight teams rated as above average on offence, and MoSHBODS still has nine. Also, MoSSBODS now has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, as does MoSHBODS.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS span a range of 8.2 scoring shots and defensive ratings a range of 7.4 scoring shots. Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 28.2 points and defensive ratings a range of 28 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 15.
Sydney remains the team most likely to end the season with an impressive Rating by historical standards
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (down 2), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 2), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.67, which is down on where it’s been in recent weeks, suggesting the relationship between these two abilities has become a little less coupled.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams this week, but left Sydney in 1st and Brisbane Lions in 2nd.
Below them, Carlton took 3rd from Western Bulldogs and, further down Fremantle made the only multi-spot move: up 2 spots into 7th.
Rating compression is also subsiding on MARS too, with about 22 Rating Points now separating 2nd from 10th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 3 goals.
By way of comparison, at the end of Round 15 last season, the gap between 2nd and 10th was about 21 Rating Points, or roughly 17 points.
There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Gold Coast on 999.4 falling just short of the number required to qualify.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions
MARS again provides the most outlying rankings this week at 9, ahead of MoSSBODS with 4, and MoSHBODS with 2.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide and Hawthorn.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 8 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about 5, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 13.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide and Hawthorn (4 spots) have the widest range of rankings, but that there are now only three teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots (Port Adelaide being the team to add).
There are also now five teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, North Melbourne, St Kilda, and Sydney.
