2024 - Round 15 Results - Bye Byes
/MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins had just enough contrarianism in their head-to-head tips this week to finish with perfect scores of 6 from 6, which allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to take a two tip lead over Bookie Knows Best, MoSSBODS_Marg and the RSMP twins on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. It’s now on 84.5 from 126 (67%) atop a table where 1st and 7th are separated by just 3 tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.2 from 6, which took the season-long figure to 80.4 from 126 (64%).
Margin prediction was a little poorer still this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from MoSHPlay_Marg’s 30.5 points per game to RSMP_Weighted’s 34.6 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 32.5 points per game, which is up by a little over 1 point per game on last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 26.9 points per game per predictor.
The only movements on the Leaderboard were Bookie_Hcap leaping from 4th to 2nd at the expense of Bookie_LPSO and RSMP_Simple, and Bookie_3 and RSMP_Weighted trading places.
The gap between 1st and 8th remains below 40 points.
Log probability scores were all highly positive and fairly similar again this week, but broadly higher for the MoS trio than the bookmaker-based forecasters. MoSHPlay_Prob remains in 1st place on the Leaderboard ahead of Bookie_LPSO and, now, Bookie_RE.
WAGERING
AT 3QT in the Dees v Roos clash, Investors looked set to make a profit in Round 15, but a capitulation by the Dees coupled with a strong Roos comeback eventually saw the Dees win by only 30 points, which was about 9 points fewer than we needed.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by almost 3c, which leaves it down now by 10cc, that from a -4.5% ROT on a 2.2 turn.
