AFLW 2025 - Round 11

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 11 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Five games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just over four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees eight of nine favourites winning, four of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The sole forecast underdog winner is Western Bulldogs, narrowly, over Geelong.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 15 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 17 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 10

/

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-95% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. St Kilda, Carlton, Adelaide, and West Coast: about 80-90% chances of being finalists; around 2-5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 45% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle: around 15% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs: around 1-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Geelong Essendon, Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 10 Results - Bliss

/

WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, as did bpth bookmakers, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 64 from 81 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 19.3 points per game (compared to 26.2 and 26.4 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 15.6 points per game (compared to 15.1 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.5 bits compares to +1.4 and +1.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

Very pleasing again.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 10 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 12:20PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Essendon v Brisbane: 0.9% u87.5 @ $1.87

  • Collingwood v Richmond: 0.2% o78.5 @ $1.87

  • Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs: 0.2% u87.5 @ $1.85

UpDATE 11:45AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Melbourne v Sydney: 0.4% o89.5 @ $1.85

  • North Melbourne v Adelaide: 1.9% u89.5 @ $1.85

  • GWS v Fremantle: 1.4% u84.5 @ $1.90

  • Carlton v St Kilda: 0.2% u81.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 3:30PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Port Adelaide v Hawthorn: 1% o83.5 @ $1.87

  • West Coast v Geelong: 0.9% u87.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2025 - Round 10

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 9 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Four games expected to be decided by less than or about two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals

  • Two game expected to be decided by about four-and-a-half to five goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees all nine favourites winning, six of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 15.5 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 21 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 9

/

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton : about 95% chances of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 85% chances of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and West Coast: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; around 1% to <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Geelong, and Collingwood: around 15-20% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Western Bulldogs: about 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Essendon, Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 9 Results - Progression

/

WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, and the bookmakers 7 also, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 58 from 81 (72%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 22.4 points per game (compared to 19.8 and 20 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 13.9 points per game (compared to 14.6 and 14.7 for the bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.3 bits compares to +2.8 and +3 bits for the two bookmakers.

Another very acceptable round.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 9 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 11:20AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Fremantle v Melbourne: 0.3% o78.5 @ $1.85

We’ve passed on an overs wager in the St Kilda v Collingwood game due to the forecast of “showers increasing”

UpDATE 11AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS, still glowing in last night’s Dogs win, has taken:

  • Adelaide v West Coast: 0.5% u81.5 @ $1.87

  • Brisbane v Port Adelaide: 0.9% o89.5 @ $1.87

  • Richmond v North Melbourne: 1.8% u95.5 @ $1.87

We’ve passed on an overs wager in the Hawthorn v Gold Coast game due to the forecast of “showers increasing”

AFLW 2025 - Round 9

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 9 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Four games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about six-and-a-half goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about nine goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just two underdogs (Western Bulldogs and Carlton) winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 22.3 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 26.2 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 8

/

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide and West Coast: about 65-85% chances of being finalists; around 2-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, Sydney, and Geelong: about 40-45% chance of being finalists; around <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Collingwood: around 5-10% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, Gold Coast, and Essendon: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 8 Results - Finally!

/

WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, and the bookmakers 7, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 51 from 72 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 20.8 points per game (compared to 22.6 and 22.7 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 18.5 points per game (compared to 17.1 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +1.7 bits compares to +1.7 and +1.6 bits for the two bookmakers.

Another very acceptable round.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 8 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 11:30AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS is back on the overs today and has taken:

  • Richmond v Adelaide: 0.6% o75.5 @ $1.87 (forecast is for “evening showers”)

  • Geelong v Carlton: 1.5% o75.5 @ $1.87 (forecast is for “late afternoon and evening showers”)

  • West Coast v Collingwood: 2.1% u78.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 11AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has hopped off the overs train and has taken:

  • GWS v St Kilda: 2% u90.5 @ $1.87

  • North Melbourne v Sydney: 2.4% u96.5 @ $1.87

  • Gold Coast v Brisbane: 0.6% u93.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 7:10PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Melbourne v Essendon: 0.4% o83.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Hawthorn v Fremantle: 2.1% o66.5 @ $1.85*

The forecast is “medium chance of showers, becoming less likely later tonight”. So, here’s hoping …

AFLW 2025 - Round 8

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 8 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Four games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • One games expected to be decided by about two-and-a-half goals

  • Four games expected to be decided by about four-and-a-half to five goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just one underdog (Western Bulldogs) winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18.5 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 23.4 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 7

/

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 60-70% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide and Carlton: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; around 30-40% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Geelong and Sydney: about 55-65% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, West Coast, Fremantle, and Collingwood: around 10-30% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs: around 2-3% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, GWS, Richmond, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 7 Results - Marking Time

/

WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers ended up with 6 from 9 correct tips this week, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 45 from 63 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 23.2 points per game (compared to 22.7 and 22.5 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 14.4 points per game (compared to around 15 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.1 bits compares to +3.0 bits for the bookmakers.

All told then, another very acceptable round.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 7 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 11AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • St Kilda v Port Adelaide: 1.3% o80.5 @ $1.90*

  • Adelaide v Sydney: 0.4% u87.5 @ $1.85

  • Carlton v Fremantle: 0.1% u87.5 @ $1.85

  • Western Bulldogs v Collingwood: 0.8% u81.5 @ $1.87

The TAB were offering o77.5 @ $1.90 but, after I submitted the wager, rejected it, closed the market to me, and then reopened it at 80.5. Shenanigans, Shenanigans.

UpDATE 12:45PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Essendon v North Melbourne: 3.5% u87.5 @ $1.87

  • Carlton v Fremantle: 0.1% u80.5 @ $1.87

It passed on an overs bet in the Melbourne v Gold Coast due to forecast persistent showers

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 6

/

This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Adelaide: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 40-60% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton and Geelong: about 85% chance of being finalists; around 25-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 60% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle, Collingwood, and St Kilda: around 15-30% chances of being finalists; around 1% to <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. West Coast, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, GWS, Richmond, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 7

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 7 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Six games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by between about 34 and 38 points

  • One game expected to be decided by about 50 points..

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just one underdog (Port Adelaide) winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18 points, while WoSHBODS’ is about 23 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 6 Results - Chipping Away

/

WoSHBODS tipped only favourites this week, and so ended up with 8 from 9 correct selections, mirroring the bookmakers.

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of just 18.4 points per game (compared to 19.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 8.9 points per game (compared to 9.6 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +2.2 bits compares to +2.4 and +2.5 bits for the bookmakers.

All told then, a very acceptable round.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 6 - Unders/Overs

/

UPDATE 11:45AM SATURDAY

There are forecasts of “possible showers” and “medium chance of showers” in Melbourne and Adelaide, but they don’t sound like enough to preclude WoSHBODS from taking overs at Victoria Park and Alberton Oval.

Accordingly, it has taken:

  • Collingwood v Hawthorn: 0.9% o65.5 @ $1.87 (estimated overlay 3.9 points)

  • Port Adelaide v Geelong: 4.3% o77.5 @ $1.85 (estimated overlay 14.5 points)

  • Collingwood v Hawthorn: 0.5% o74.5 @ $1.87 (estimated overlay 3 points)

UPDATE 12 NOON SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Sydney v GWS: 0.3% o90.5 @ $1.85 (estimated overlay 3.1 points)

It passed on taking o71.5 in the Melbourne v West Coast game due to a forecast of “showers” (rather than “possible showers”)