2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 3

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn: about 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: about 85-90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 40-45% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and Adelaide: about 75-80% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 40-45% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; about 0.5-<1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; about <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Richmond and Essendon: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 2

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and Brisbane Lions: about 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle, Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, and Collingwood: about 70-80% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. St Kilda, Melbourne, and Port Adelaide: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton, North Melbourne, and West Coast: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; about 1-3% chances of Top 4; about <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Richmond and Essendon: about 5-10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 1

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions: about 85 to 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45 to 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10 to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast, Sydney, and Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 35 to 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5 to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood, and GWS: about 65 to 75% chances of being finalists; roughly 20 to 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 12% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and North Melbourne: about 30 to 40% chances of being finalists; about 5 to 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: about 15 to 25% chances of being finalists; about 2 to 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast and Essendon: about 5 to 10% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions: about 85 to 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45 to 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10 to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast, Sydney, and Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 35 to 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5 to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood, and GWS: about 65 to 75% chances of being finalists; roughly 20 to 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 12% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and North Melbourne: about 30 to 40% chances of being finalists; about 5 to 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: about 15 to 25% chances of being finalists; about 2 to 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast and Essendon: about 5 to 10% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 0

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This year’s post Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs: about 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Hawthorn: about 80% chances of being finalists; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney, and Fremantle: about 65-75% chances of being finalists; roughly 25-35% of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 55% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide and St Kilda: about 35-40% chances of being finalists; about 5-10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton and North Melbourne: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; about 3-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, Essendon, and West Coast: about 10 to 15% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder Before Round 0

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Welcome to the first season simulation for 2026.

As you might imagine, after more than a decade of simulating the remainder of men’s AFL seasons, the code required to do so has become … substantial. It now contains lines strewn throughout to handle this or that particular edge case — the introduction of a Round 0, the reintroduction of byes, including byes in the first round of a season, games that were supposedly from the same round but played months apart, and so on. It’s less a script now and more a living record of pandemics, bad weather, and competition rejiggery.

So when I heard that the League had confirmed that the 2026 season would involve a wildcard round, I looked forward to updating my code much as an American turkey looks forward to Thanksgiving.

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2025 : Simulating the Finals After R24.1

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FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

MoSHBODS now has the following opinions about the Finals

Flag favouritism is then, currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $2.65)

  • Adelaide (about $5)

  • Collingwood (about $6.25)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $6.70)

  • Gold Coast (about $16.70)

We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.

Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.

The most common pairings are

  • Geelong / Adelaide, which accounts for about 23% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 66% of those.

  • Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 18% of GFs, Geelong wins about 65%

  • Collingwood / Adelaide: about 13% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 55%

  • Geelong / Collingwood: about 12% of GFs, Geelong wins about 64%

  • Brisbane Lions / Adelaide: about 9% of GFs, Brisbane Lions wins just over half

  • Collingwood / Brisbane Lions: about 5% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 54%

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, which meant that the Suns entered the Finals at the expense of the Dogs, there was an increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now only about a 1-in-8 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another near 3-in-4 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-8 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.

2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R24

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With just a single home and away game yet to play, the only interest is in estimating:

  1. The probability that Gold Coast defeat Essendon and thereby claim a spot in the Finals at the expense of Western Bulldogs

  2. The probability that they do so by a sufficiently wide margin to have them finishing above Hawthorn

To finish above Hawthorn:

  • If Gold Coast scores 80 points, they need to win by 26 points or more

  • If Gold Coast scores 100 points, they need to win by 29 points or more

  • If Gold Coast scores 120 points, they need to win by 32 points or more

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R23

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This year’s post Round 23 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: certain or near-certain of being finalists; 50-65% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Hawthorn and GWS: certain of being finalists; 10-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Western Bulldogs: about 85% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle: around 15% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, St Kilda, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R22

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This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast: certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; 15-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: around 75% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Western Bulldogs: about 85% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R21

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This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; around 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 7% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 65-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: around 98% chance of being finalists; 55% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, GWS, and Western Bulldogs: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 1-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Hawthorn: about 60% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R20

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This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: around 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Brisbane Lions: around 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: around 90% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 2-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R19

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This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood and Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; around 70% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 75-85% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney: roughly 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R18

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This year’s post Round 18 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 75% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-5% chances of Top 4; 3-7% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Western Bulldogs: about 90% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 75-80% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle: roughly 60% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney: roughly 5% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R17

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This year’s post Round 17 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 95% chance of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn: about 85% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Fremantle: roughly 55-65% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney: roughly 5% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R16

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This year’s post Round 16 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 2-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast and Hawthorn: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 20-30% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle: roughly 70% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: 2-7% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R15

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This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn and Fremantle: roughly 70-75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney and Carlton: about 10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: 1-<1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R14

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This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood & Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-55% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, and Fremantle: roughly 70-80% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and St Kilda: roughly 1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R13

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This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; over 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide: over 95% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle and Hawthorn: about 75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 3-7% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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