The Grand Final saw MoSSBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margin and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS do the same for Game Totals, and Sportsbet do the same for Home Team Scores.
None of which disturbed the lock that the TAB has had on the season-long lead for all four metrics, although MoSHBODS did go very close on Game Totals.
Read MoreBoth Systems moved the Dogs back ahead of the Lions on Combined Rating this week, meaning that the highest-rated team at the end of the season missed Finals.
It left both Systems with final matching Top 3s of Western Bulldogs, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions.
Read MoreRegardless of who’s on the end of it or how well the victors played, it’s always a bit disheartening to witness a Grand Final that ends with such a large margin of victory.
That win by the Lions improves the record of 3rd v 2nd in Grand Finals to 4 and 1, and to teams from 3rd generally in Grand Finals to 8 and 5. Teams from 2nd are now 7 and 7. Across all Finals, however, teams from 2nd still have a better record than teams from 3rd.
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s final view of the Grand Final is Cats by 15 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Grand Final is Cats by 14 points.
Of course just the one game this week, which sees the MoS twins in near agreement but forecasting very differently from the bookmakers.
Those bookmakers are forecasting a Total two or three points higher than the all-season-to-date average, while the MoS twins are about 10 points higher still.
Read MoreThere have been four Grand Finals since 2000 where 2nd on the ladder faced 3rd, and the teams from 3rd have won three of those contests but not the most recent, which occurred in 2018 and saw West Coast defeat Collingwood.
More generally, teams from 2nd on the ladder have seen themselves playing in the Grand Final in 13 of the 25 previous seasons, winning 7 and losing 6, with five of those seven victories coming in games against the minor premier.
Teams from 3rd have participated 12 times, winning seven and losing five with four of them to minor premiers.
Read MoreMoSSBODS moved the two winning Preliminary Finalists up a spot each - Geelong into 1st at the expense of Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions into 3rd at the expense of Collingwood - while MoSHBODS just moved Brisbane Lions into 3rd ahead of Hawthorn.
That left both Systems with matching Top 3s of Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.
Read MoreMoSHBODS thought there’d be one win by a favourite and one by an underdog, which was correct, but MoSHBODS got the order wrong. We had 2nd defeating 8th, and 3rd defeating 4th.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has preliminary views about the two games this weekend
Two games again this week, and some non-trivial differences of opinion about likely Totals, including a five-point difference between the MoS twins for the Pies v Lions game and 7.5- to 12.5-point differences between the MoS twins and the bookmakers for the Cats v Hawks.
Read MoreHistorically since 2000, Week 3 2nd v 8th clashes have gone 1-0 in favour of the team from 2nd, and the more common 3rd v 4th clashes have gone 8-2 in favour of the team from 3rd.
More generally, teams from 2nd on the ladder have seen themselves playing in Week 3 in 23 of the 25 previous seasons, winning 13 and losing 10, with eight of those 10 losses coming in games against the minor premier.
Teams from 3rd have participated 20 times, winning 12 and losing eight (five of them to minor premiers), while teams from 4th have been there 19 times for just three wins, and teams from 8th have been there only once previously for a loss.
The dire record of teams finishing 4th on the ladder is perplexing - they even have losing (if short) records against teams from 6th and 7th on the ladder.
Read MoreMoSSBODS left all teams in the same order and MoSHBODS just switched the Lions into 4th ahead of the Pies, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.
Read MoreWhilst 8th on the ladder defeating 1st might’ve been a huge surprise in previous seasons, it was perhaps less so this season as the two teams entered their semi-final with Hawthorn ranked 3rd by MoSHBODS and Adelaide 7th and with the Crows’ favouritism coming solely from the putative advantage that the game’s venue was meant to confer.
In the other game, the Lions and Suns entered their match ranked 5th (Brisbane Lions) and 6th (Gold Coast) with essentially equal MoSHBODS Ratings, but with the Lions enjoying the venue performance advantage. Their victory was therefore much less of a surprise, although the margin larger than expected.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 7 points.
MoSHPlay has some preliminary thoughts on the two semi-finals (but not even semi thoughts on the preliminary finals)
Just the two games this week, and not much to separate the four sets of forecasts.
Read MoreThe bookmakers have both of this weeks’ games as close-run things, though still have both home teams as favourites.
Read MoreMoSSBODS swapped Collingwood into 3rd ahead of Brisbane Lions, and Sydney into 10th ahead of GWS, while MoSHBODS swapped Geelong into 1st ahead of Western Bulldogs, and moved Collingwood into 4th, Gold Coast into 6th, Adelaide into 7th, Fremantle into 8th, and GWS into 9th.
All of which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.
Read MoreIt’s been a while since the teams in 2nd, 4th, 7th and 8th prevailed in the first week of the men’s Finals - about 19 years if my data is correct.
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with the Crows by 2 goals as its final forecast, and now also has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay is preliminarily opting for the Crows by 2 goals.
There are four games this week, and the MoS twins have relatively similar views about the likely total scores in all of them, differing by no more than a couple of points in any single game.
With the notable exception of the Cats v Lions game, the bookmakers’ views are not all that different either.
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