2024 - Round 16 : Yes We Can

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Round 16 offers a full menu of fixtures, with the Friday night entree a 10th v 9th affair somewhat remarkably expected to be won by almost 5 goals by the team in 10th. Saturday doesn’t start much better in terms of expected margins, with two more games forecast to be won by 4 or 5 goals, but it’s quality for the remainder of the day, with three near coin-toss games to fill the afternoon and evening. Sunday starts with another near pick ‘em before moving onto an expected 6 goal affair, and finishing with a contest forecast to be decided by a couple of goals.

The all-game average expected margin is 15.7 points per game in what is another highly bimodal round.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are six different sources of contrarian head-to-head forecasts this week, spanning eight of the nine games. Home Sweet Home is the biggest contributor with six, but we also have Consult The Ladder, the RSMP twins, and MoSHBODS_Marg with two each, and ENS_Linear with one'.

There are likely to be some changes, therefore, at the important end of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in just three games this week: 24 points in the Roos v Dogs, 16 points in the Tigers v Blues, and 11 points in the Swans v Dockers game.

MoSHBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg, RSMP_Simple, and Bookie_3 in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are no games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range.

MoSHBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, MoSSBODS_Prob in five, and Bookie_RE in four.

WAGERS

There are more wagers this week compared to last, though most are relatively, and we did dance with the bookmakers on a couple.

We wanted 5.3% of the Line Fund on the Dogs -34.5 at $1.90 but eventually had to settle for 4.4% at that line and price, and another 0.5% at the same price but a -35.5 point line.

We also wanted 1.5% on Fremantle +26.5 at $1.90, but settled for 1.4% at that price and line.

In total, Investors have 3.3% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on three smallish wagers all in the $2 to $3 price range, and 8.4% of the original Line Fund on three wagers ranging in size from the medium to the large,

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that Western Bulldogs very comfortably carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a 6-goal win and a 34-point win represents 6.1% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by West Coast (3.6%), then Fremantle (1.7%), then Adelaide (0.6%), andthen Geelong (0.5%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 6c, while a worst case set would snip about the same amount off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.