2024 - Round 16 : Overs/Unders

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The twins, relatively speaking, have some quite different opinions this week about likely Totals, whilst the bookmakers are, as usual, largely in agreement.

Overall, MoSHBODS is the most optimistic in terms of the average forecast Total.

The debate this week amongst the four forecasters is around the lowest scoring game and team:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Gold Coast v Collingwood

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: St Kilda v Port Adelaide (also Adelaide v GWS for the TAB)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS: Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in five games this week, four unders and one overs, each of which has again been accommodated by a single bookmaker. Two other overs bets have been passed due to expected rain.

The five wagers total just over 11% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between 4.4 and 6.9 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.1% to 2.8% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared between Sportsbet and MoSSBODS this week:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The season-long Game Totals title switched hands again this week, with MoSSBODS snatching it back from the TAB. The leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 20 points ahead of Sportsbet and 66 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 10 points ahead of the TAB and 16 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 25 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 27 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 14 points ahead of the TAB and 18 points of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had wagers on four games last week, one overs with the TAB that finished 1 and 0, one overs with Sportsbet that also finished 1 and 0, and two unders with Sportsbet that finished 1 and 1.

It ended then at 17 and 23 with the TAB, and at 18 and 9 with Sportsbet, for an overall 35 and 32 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 6 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 68 from 126 (54%) against the TAB, and 70 from 126 (56%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 4 from 6 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 67 from 126 (53%) against the TAB, and 68 from 126 (54%) against Sportsbet.