2024 - Team Ratings After Round 14
/MoSSBODS reranked just eight teams this week, and MoSHBODS only four, leaving them both now with the same Top 5 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Collingwood.
Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Western Bulldogs up 2 into 2nd, and Collingwood down 2 into 5th. None moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS.
Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only 4.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 17 points), and MoSHBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only just over 16 points.
Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9945 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.6 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Swans, Dogs, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Swans, Dogs, and Blues, while on defence MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Swans, and MoSHBODS has Swans, Dockers, and Dees.
MoSSBODS still has eight teams rated as above average on offence, but MoSHBODS now has nine. Also, MoSSBODS still has 14 teams rated as above average on defence while MoSHBODS has only 12 so rated.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 14.
Sydney now seems to be making a move away from the peleton to see if it can break them.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.75, which remains quite high in an historical context and still suggests that team’s relative offensive and defensive abilities are quite similar at this point in the season.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, but leaving Sydney in 1st and Brisbane Lions in 2nd.
Below them, Western Bulldogs climbed four spots into 3rd, GWS rose two spots to 6th, Melbourne rose two spots to 8th, and Fremantle fell four spots to 9th.
The other four moves were all of a single spot.
There remains considerable Rating compression on MARS too, with only 11 Rating Points now separating 2nd from 10th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of only about 9 points.
By way of contrast, at the end of Round 14 last season, the gap between 2nd and 10th was about 20 Rating Points, or roughly 16 points.
There are still 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (which are, once again, based firstly on percent of competition points obtained and then on percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions
MARS again provides the most outlying rankings this week at 9, ahead of MoSSBODS with 6, and MoSHBODS with 2.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Essendon and Adelaide.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 8 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS also about 9, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 11.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now six teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also now five teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, and Sydney.
