2024 - Round 15 : Calmness

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Round 15 is the last of the season’s truncated rounds, and its six games this week comprise four that are expected to be won by only about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two more that are expected to be won by about six-and-a-half goals. The all-game average expected margin is 16.7 points per game, which is not within a couple of points of any of the actual expected margins, demonstrating the lower utility of using means for bimodal data.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Only two of the six games this week have contrarian head-to-head forecasts, with just one of those coming from Home Sweet Home, and the other two from the RSMP twins.

So, once again pending what MoSHPlay ultimately serves up, we’re probably in for no changes at the important end of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard again this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in just two games this week: 17 points in the Dees v Roos, and 12 points in the Giants v Swans game.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week. No-one else has it in more than two games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are no games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range, although the Dees v Roos game goes very close.

Bookie_LPSO has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and Bookie_OE and MoSSBODS_Prob in three each.

WAGERS

It’s a very quiet wagering week, but what Investors do have was interesting to secure.

There was no interest from MoSHBODS in head-to-head wagering, and MoSSBODS was keen only for pieces of Sydney and Melbourne in the line market.

MoSSBODS wanted 1.4% on Sydney giving GWS 12.5 points start, and managed to secure all but $5.10 of that wager with Sportsbet (yeah, I know, go figure). The TAB were happy to accommodate the other $5, so Sydney was exactly as we wanted.

It also wanted 5.8% on Melbourne giving the Roos 32.5 points start, only 1.4% of which Sportsbet were willing to accommodate immediately. The TAB would initially take only 0.6% and, when I tried again, had closed the market. Quietly wondering if my relatively paltry wagers were capable of altering an entire market, my ego was quickly deflated when the TAB market reopened … at Melbourne -31.5, at which line they were willing to take another 2.2% of Investor money. After I secured that, the market closed again and then reopened shortly after at the original -32.5 line. Now, with the line back where it had been not 10 minutes ago when I’d been capped at 0.6%, the TAB were willing to accommodate another 1.9%.

In total, then, Investors have 6.1% of the original Line Fund on Melbourne variously at -31.5 and -32.5. Note that I’ve wagered a little more than the initial appetite of 5.8% because some of the wager is at a better line.

So, Investors have just two line bets this week totalling 7.5% of the Head-to-Head Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The wins and losses scenarios this week are:

GWS v Sydney

  • Sydney wins by 13 points or more: 1.4% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.8c

  • Otherwise: -1.4% x 65% = -0.9c

Melbourne v North Melbourne

  • Melbourne wins by 33 points or more: 3.9% x 0.9 x 65% + 2.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +3.6c

  • Melbourne wins by 32 points: -3.9% x 65% + 2.2% x 0.9 x 65% = -1.2c

  • Otherwise: -3.9% x 65% - 2.2% x 65% = -4c

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 4.4c, while a worst case set would snip almost 5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.