2024 - Round 15 : Overs/Unders

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There’s some variability again this week between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ Total forecasts, but nothing in double digits, all of which has left the twins’ average about the same to a little higher than the bookmakers’.

The debate this week amongst the four forecasters is again around the highest scoring game, and the lowest scoring team:.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: GWS v Sydney

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Carlton v Geelong

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Fremantle v Gold Coast

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in four games this week, two unders and two overs, each of which has been accommodated by a single bookmaker. They total 11.5% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between about 5.5 and 9.5 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.7% to 4% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were solely with Sportsbet this week, an excellent rebound after missing out entirely last week:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet

Looking at the Errors section of this table, it’s interesting to note how well-calibrated, on average, all four forecasters have been so far this season. None of them has an average error greater than 1 point in absolute magnitude on any of the four metrics.

The season-long Game Totals title switched hands this week, with the TAB taking a narrow lead over MoSSBODS. The leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 20 points ahead of Sportsbet and 53 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 18 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 27 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 22 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 29 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: TAB 3 points ahead of the MoSSBODS and 4 points of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had wagers on five games last week - effectively two wagers though on the Lions v Suns game, each with a different bookmaker at a different line - one overs with the TAB that finished 0 and 1, three unders with the TAB that finished 0 and 3, and two unders with Sportsbet that finished 1 and 1.

It ended then, if we count the wagers on the Lions v Suns game as two separate wagers, at 16 and 23 with the TAB, and at 16 and 8 with Sportsbet, for an overall 32 and 31 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 2 from 6 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 63 from 120 (53%) against the TAB, and 65 from 120 (54%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 2 from 6 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 63 from 120 (53%) against the TAB, and 64 from 120 (53%) against Sportsbet.