2024 - Team Ratings After Round 13
/MoSSBODS reranked 10 teams again this week, but MoSHBODS reranked 12, leaving them both now with only the same Top 2 of Sydney and Brisbane Lions. MoSSBODS prefers Collingwood for 3rd, while MoSHBODS likes Western Bulldogs.
Only three teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Western Bulldogs down 2 into 4th, and Carlton down 2 into 5th) and three did likewise on MoSHBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Essendon up 2 into 11th, and Adelaide down 2 into 14th).
Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only 5.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 19 points), and MoSHBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only just over 19 points.
Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9946 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.6 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still with Top 3s of Swans, Blues, and Dogs, while on defence MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dockers, Lions, and Dees, and MoSHBODS has Dockers, Lions, and Pies.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have 8 teams rated as above average on offence. Also, MoSSBODS has 14 teams rated as above average on defence while MoSHBODS has only 13 so rated.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 13.
I think it’s fair to say that we’re still holding out for a hero in 2024.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.7, which remains quite high in an historical context and still suggesting that team’s relative offensive and defensive abilities are similar.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams again this week, leaving Sydney in 1st, but elevating Brisbane Lions by 4 places into 2nd, Carlton by 1 place into 3rd, and Collingwood by 3 places into 4th.
Other multi-spot movers were Geelong down 3 spots into 6th, and Western Bulldogs down 5 spots into 7th.
There remains considerable Rating compression on MARS too, with only just over 9 Rating Points now separating 2nd from 10th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of only about 7 points.
By way of contrast, at the end of Round 13 last season, the gap between 2nd and 10th was about 21.5 Rating Points, or roughly 17 points.
There are still 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (which are, once again, based firstly on percent of competition points obtained and then on percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 10, ahead of MoSSBODS with 7, and MoSHBODS with 4.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide, Essendon, Port Adelaide, and Fremantle.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 6 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS still only 4, while MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about only 9 teams.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Fremantle (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now seven teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also four teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, and Sydney.
