2024 - Round 13 Results - Moving Day

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It was another bad week for favourites, with just three of eight claiming victory, which allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to overtake Bookie Knows Best by one tip based on its 4 from 8 performance, and MoSHBODS_Marg to move up the Leaderboard with the same score.

MoSHPlay_Marg is now on 72.5 from 114 (64%), and the all-Tipster average for the round came in at 3.1 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 69.7 from 114 (61%).

Margin prediction was much stronger this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from MoSHPlay_Marg’s streets ahead 22.7 points per game (its second best on ground MAE in a row) to ENS_Linear’s 27.4 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 25.9 points per game, which is down by over 7-and-a-half points per game on last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 26.4 points per game per predictor.

MoSHPlay_Marg’s performance was so much superior to all other Margin Predictors that it jumped six places into 1st, although only 4 points ahead of Bookie_LPSO and RSMP_Simple. Bookie_3 continued a slide that has now seen it drop from 1st to 7th in just 4 weeks.

Amazingly, the gap between 1st and 8th is now only just over 5 goals.

Log probability scores were all negative this week, but least of all for MoSHPlay_Prob who, as a consequence, moved into 3rd place on the Leaderboard. Bookie_OE was least worst amongst the bookie-based forecasters and now lies in 1st, with Bookie_LPSO relegated to 2nd, and Bookie_RE to 4th.

WAGERING

Another profit in Round 13 - albeit a far more modest one than in Round 12, in part due to West Coast disappointing us - has seen the Combined Portfolio return to profit for the first time since Round 5. Only the Head-to-Head Fund failed to return a profit, and its losses were covered by the profits from both the other two Funds.

Had you told me two weeks ago that the Portfolio wpuld be green ink at the end of Round 13, I would have told you that you didn’t understand how it all works and we’d be lucky to be breakeven by even Round 20.

(NB: An earlier version of this table had 5 of 6 overs/unders wagers being successful. The correct figure is 4 from 6 and the correct return is as now shown.)

Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished up by 1.6c, which leaves it up (sic) now by 1.4c, that from a +0.7% ROT on a 2.1 turn.